By Anderson Ojwang

During the 2022 presidential campaign, Azimio La Umoja Secretary General Junet Mohammed coined a phrase “hii imeenda”, which implied the presidency was already won by their candidate, the late Raila Amolo Odinga.

For Junet, Kenya Kwanza candidate William Ruto had already lost the election, and the phrase has stayed and remained part and parcel of the Suna East MP.

And now the question Kenyans and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) members are asking is: “hii imeenda” ama “enda wapi” (has it gone or where has it gone to)?

Could there be cracks in the ODM Linda Ground faction that have sent Junet missing in action?

During Raila’s life and after his death, Junet and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga were like Siamese twins and called the shots within and without the party.

After Raila’s death, his elder brother, Dr Oburu Oginga, told the public that while he was at the airport waiting for the remains of his brother to land, Junet broke the news to him of his appointment as the acting party leader of ODM.

Junet’s last appearance at an ODM Linda Ground function was during the Special Delegates Conference (SDC), where the acting party officials were confirmed, with Dr Oburu confirmed as the party leader.

Other officials confirmed into office were Governor Simba Arati and his Mombasa counterpart Abdulsamad Nassir as deputy party leaders, while Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi was sacked.

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga was confirmed as the chairperson, among others.

The Kisumu Rally

Last Sunday’s rally was meant to unite the community towards a common front, and MPs and leaders from the region were expected to attend.

After three weeks of planning and mobilisation, all constituencies from Nyanza were expected to ferry supporters to Kisumu, and Junet was once again missing in action.

In Wanga’s own words, she wrote: “The message from Kisumu is clear: we are done with fragmentation. We seek unity of purpose. We are building a formidable, united front designed to gain power, not for its own sake, but to drive the socioeconomic transformation our people deserve. Historically, our pursuit of power has been defined by resistance and rebellion. Today, we turn a historic page. We are embracing a strategy of cooperation and partnership. This is not a sign of weakness; it is the evolution of our strength. We move forward, stronger together, as one party and one people.”

But the Director of Elections was missing from the action once again, leaving the public to wonder: where is Junet?

When Wanga was contacted about Junet’s absence from ODM functions, she did not respond.

Similarly, Junet did not respond to our text message about his absence from ODM functions.

The re-emergence of the Treasury Cabinet Secretary in the limelight

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has re-emerged to take a leading role in the ODM party and, in the company of Wanga, has been traversing Nyanza under what they call empowerment programmes.

Mbadi and Wanga, who were bitter political rivals, have today buried the hatchet and hold joint political functions, with Mbadi even declaring support for Wanga’s re-election as Homa Bay Governor.

Mbadi and Junet have for a long time had a frosty political association, and his current close ties with Wanga and the absence of the Suna East MP from the Dr Oburu Oginga-led faction of Linda Ground speaks volumes.

The CS also stated his readiness to contest the 2032 presidential election, positioning himself among emerging contenders to succeed President William Ruto after his final term.

Mbadi said he was prepared for future leadership responsibilities and used the Kisumu gathering to emphasise unity within the Luo community, urging residents to rally behind key leaders, including National Assembly Speaker Oburu Oginga and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.

“There is no way our Luo community will not be divided. We must be united behind Oburu and Wanga; we will support them to the end,” he said.

The re-emergence of Mbadi could be part of a wider political game plan for ODM leadership, and the emerging alliances in the political fold could be shaping up for the 2032 presidential contest.

Political analyst Oyugi Odedo said the absence of Junet from ODM functions could be down to a power struggle in the party.

“We have a new leadership structure in the party which may not give Junet direct access, control, and the ears of the party leader like he held during Raila’s time. This may be a discomforting moment, and he may have decided to lie low,” he said.

Odedo said the return of Mbadi into the political fold has also whittled down Junet’s influence, as he has the ear of Oburu and Wanga in the current political dispensation.

“You can see the current political closeness between Migori Governor Ochilo Ayacko, Mbadi and Wanga. This speaks volumes. Junet is closer to Hassan Joho and the Mombasa wing of the ODM team. So it goes without saying that competing interests are taking hold in the ODM party,” he said.

By Anderson Ojwang

Indeed, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Linda Ground faction promised a statement of intent ahead of the Kisumu rally – a promise of a show of political might over the control of Nyanza against the Linda Mwananchi faction of Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.

After three weeks of mobilisation, a series of strategic meetings, and a hype of reclamation of the ODM faction, Linda Ground witnessed a bulging Kirembe Grounds in Kisumu.

In trucks and buses, they arrived and turned the ground orange. For the first time, the faction netted a big catch in luring Kisumu Governor and former acting ODM party leader, Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, to attend a Linda Ground faction rally.

Nyong’o, who had previously given the meetings and rallies by the faction a wide berth, first hosted the team for breakfast at his Kisumu residence and later proceeded to the venue.

In his mien, Nyong’o said: “I had the pleasure of welcoming and hosting the leadership of our Party ODM led by Dr Oburu Oginga as we put our heads together to chart a way forward for ODM based on the original seed. Finally, one fact is clear: the future of ODM will not be decided only in Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, or Migori. It will be shaped in every corner of Kenya where citizens still believe in justice, equality, and democratic change.”

But the celebration didn’t last long. When the party leader, Dr Oburu Oginga, rose to speak, he not only dampened the hearts of his allies, but his submission is likely to stir a major political shift.

Oburu told the crowd that he was ready to quit as the ODM party leader to avoid dividing the Luo community, to the chagrin and dismay of his allies.

“An ok ahero gima ilaro ma pogo oganda (I don’t like things that people fight over that divide the community). An adwaro ni gimora amora ka oponi an ema de apog oganda to ayie weyo (If it’s me who is bringing division to the community, I am ready to quit). Ka pon ni an ema de apog ogandawa to ayie weyo (If it’s me who is the cause of division, then I am ready to quit).”

Sunday’s Kirembe rally came to an abrupt anti-climax with Oburu’s submission when it finally dawned on him that the ship was capsizing under his own reign, presiding over the demise of his younger brother, the late Raila Odinga’s legacy.

“Ka uweyo chama ni ma opodho to kata owadwa ma raila mane ochako chama ni nyalo chuenou (If you leave the ODM party to die, even my brother Raila who founded the party will haunt you),” he said.

He pleaded with the people to continue supporting the party and said that he did not apply to be the party leader.

“Udhi nyime gi chama koso uweyo. Wadhi nyime gi chama koso uweyo (Are you still supporting the party or have you left it)? An bende Oburu Oginga ne ok ayiero ra kenda mondo abed party leader mar ODM, jowa ma uneo kaye ema ne oyiera kendo ne okelo nyinga (I, Oburu Oginga, did not make myself the party leader. I was given the opportunity by the party officials. Those people you saw here are the ones who elected me and brought my name forward),” he said.

Winnie Odinga vindicated

The Kisumu rally finally vindicated Winnie Odinga, who had said that the party leadership required new people to manage it and that the broad-based arrangement was a complex matter that only her father, Raila, understood.

During the ODM celebrations in Mombasa, Winnie called for a National Delegates Conference (NDC) to choose a new team to manage the broad-based arrangement with President William Ruto.

“There is something I wanted to tell you. When it came to the matter of the broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person with the management of that relationship. That person was Baba Raila Amolo Odinga. That relationship is complicated, and therefore we are looking, and we are wondering: those who are taking it upon themselves to manage it now, are they capable of managing that relationship? I don’t think that is the question for me to answer. That is the question for the people of ODM to answer. That is why, party leader, I am requesting that we need to go back to the people and have an NDC to see who the people want to pick to manage that same relationship,” she said.

Oburu admitted for the first time that he never knew he would one day become the ODM party leader.

“An ne ok angeyo ni da bedi ODM party leader (I never knew I would be the ODM party leader). Jogi ema ne oneno ni Oburu Oginga oromo bedo party leader (It is those people who saw that Oburu Oginga was suited to be the party leader).”

The question arises: why didn’t they settle on Nyong’o, who had been acting when the late Raila was campaigning for the seat of AU Chairperson?

This echoes MP Caroli Omondi’s allegations that a stranger’s hand was driving ODM affairs and influencing the happenings in the party.

Party Secretary Edwin Sifuna went ahead to justify that the money currently being used by the party to run its programmes was not from the party coffers but from somewhere else.

Oburu’s submission that he is ready to quit will add fuel to the fire in the ongoing power battle between him and Orengo.

Currently, Orengo is enjoying a huge following in the region, and Linda Mwananchi is rating higher than Oburu’s Linda Ground in recent opinion polls.

By Anderson Ojwang

In lorries and sugarcane trucks they arrived, crumpled like goods ready for delivery at the factories. They painted the town and the venue orange, whistling and shouting themselves hoarse.

In the sweltering and sweating sun, they patiently waited on empty stomachs and dry throats, yearning for water while their stomachs rumbled and complained irritably and constantly.

Meanwhile, the hosts converged at high-end hotels and the governor’s residence to sample the best menu for brunch.

The clinking of forks and spoons, spiced with soft laughter and pleasantries, formed the mid-morning convergence.

For as many decades, they were promised hope against hopelessness. Yesterday, once again, they were told Canaan was near and that community unity was the only path to the illusive Canaan.

For the journey to Canaan, they were given orange t-shirts, caps, vuvuzelas, whistles, a packet of milk with bread, and a small token of Sh1,000 for their service.

To spice it up, just like the Negro found healing in music to soothe their pain and suffering, the hosts applied the same trick and brought in local artists to temporarily warm hearts.

That is why every speaker invoked the spirit of the Enigma, the late Raila Amolo Odinga, the founder of the now fading Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), to continue holding the community with false hope.

No wonder Kisumu Governor Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, who for the first time attended the function, said: “Having been there when we started the Party, I believe we honour Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga best, not by invoking his name in every argument, but by remaining faithful to the values he spent a lifetime defending. As well, a strong people are not those who speak with one voice on every issue. A strong people are those who remain united even when they disagree. We shall support what advances the interests of wananchi and oppose what undermines them.”

But the party leader, Dr Oburu Oginga, when he spoke, invoked the spirit of Raila, saying: “If the party dies, my brother Raila could come back to haunt the community and the people.”

And that is why when the crowd became rowdy and noisy and drowned his voice, Dr Oburu promised that he would give them a small token, and that is when the noise subsided.

Once again, fear and hope were sold to the vulnerable and gullible residents about why the community’s unity and being in the broad-based government were top priorities of the meeting.

Politics of rhetoric while development buried

The Kisumu Kirembe meeting was an opportune moment for the leaders and the people to discuss the economy and development of the region.

Instead, it was turned into the usual and casual political rhetoric of fault-finding against an imaginary enemy of the people – the usual whipping up of emotions and self-preservation.

The experts – John Mbadi at the Treasury, the nerve of the country’s economy, and his counterpart, the embattled Opiyo Wandayi of Energy – veered off track and instead accused former President Uhuru Kenyatta of failing to deliver the presidency to the community.

Mbadi went ahead to claim that it was not time for the lake region to have any alliance or association with Mt Kenya after decades of negating the community’s presidential pursuit.

“I started a conversation with the Luo community. But some enemies of the community were asking why Mbadi was inciting the Luos against Mt Kenya,” he said.

Wandayi said going forward he would be more politically engaged, not only in Siaya but also in Nyanza.

“We are going to move forward as one united people. We will walk together as members of the ODM party and as people belonging to this government, the broad-based government. This unity means a lot to our people,” Wandayi said.

But during the recent visit of President William Ruto to Homa Bay, he told Mbadi and Wandayi to ‘tigi wiyi’ (use your head) to fast-track development for the region.

In Mbadi and Wandayi’s speeches in Kisumu, it was purely politics, with not a single mention of development.

All the speakers served the audience the usual political rhetoric of Canaan and unity without purpose.

In the words of ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, she capped it all: “The message from Kisumu is clear: we are done with fragmentation. We seek unity of purpose. We are building a formidable, united front designed to gain power, not for its own sake, but to drive the socioeconomic transformation our people deserve. Historically, our pursuit of power has been defined by resistance and rebellion. Today, we turn a historic page. We are embracing a strategy of cooperation and partnership. This is not a sign of weakness; it is the evolution of our strength. We move forward, stronger together, as one party and one people.”

In the resolution, not a mention of the community’s economic and development agenda was highlighted; only the leadership of Oburu and his team, commitment to staying in the broad-based government, and unity of the region were captured.

Indeed, in Oburu’s own words, the government released Sh200 million for the party to run its operations, and that is why the Kisumu rally was a success.

Finally, when they left crestfallen, the reality of another political ride and false hope was evident. They grappled and asked questions, with some going on to social media to question whether Sh400–1,000 was enough for the time and the scorching sun.

They wondered aloud: when shall the leadership talk about development and not politics, now that the community will not present a presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections?