By Anderson Ojwang

President William Ruto is staring at the late Raila Amolo Odinga’s political monster, which is fast turning into a nightmare. The exit plan.

Despite having successfully nestled into his wrap Raila’s diplomatic wing after the Friday confirmation of Dr Oburu Oginga as the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader with his allies Governor Gladys Wanga as the National Chairperson, Governor Simba Arati and his Mombasa counterpart Abdulsamad Nassir as the deputy party leaders, Ruto now faces the real test.

Raila, a shrewd politician, developed entry and exit plans and successfully planted his allies, remotely controlled each faction, allowed them to execute his master plan, and when their interests clashed, he mediated and allowed the plot to flow seamlessly.

According to his legal advisor Paul Mwangi, who has revealed that the current contest in ODM was actually Raila’s factions fighting one another.

“What we are having today are actually fights between the two Raila Odinga’s factions. The diplomatic political faction against the militant faction,” he said.

Mwangi said both factions are legitimate and were Raila’s important vehicles in his political course.

“There are questions that now arise over legitimacy. Who are the legitimate Raila who was? They are all legitimate because Raila was a complex political character. All the factions represent something he did. The militant side also used to work for Raila as an exit strategy. Raila would not go into anything without an exit strategy. So even when he began working with President Ruto he had an exit strategy.”

He said the militant wing which has morphed into Linda Mwananchi of Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Siaya Governor James Orengo was indeed his exit strategy.

“The exit strategy was Sifuna’s side and if things did not work well with the cooperation side, he was going to turn to his militant side to lead his next political agenda,” he said.

This revelation captures Winnie Odinga’s assertion that the arrangement was so complex and needed new people to guide it.

Raila’s game plan and why Winnie remains the constant

During the last November ODM celebrations in Mombasa, Winnie called for a National Delegates Conference (NDC) to choose a new team to manage the broad-based arrangement with President William Ruto.

“There is something I wanted to tell you. When it came to the matter of broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person with the management of that relationship. That person was Baba Raila Amolo Odinga. That relationship is complicated and therefore we are looking and we are wondering, those who are taking upon themselves to manage it now, are they capable of managing that relationship? I don’t think that is the question for me to answer. That is the question for the people of ODM to answer. That is why, party leader, why I am requesting, we need to go back to the people and have an NDC to see who the people want to pick to manage that same relationship,” she said.

Raila left us in broad-based government

The pro-broad-based arrangement have maintained that Raila left them in the arrangement and they are not going anywhere.

That is why Oburu has maintained that he was the brain behind the broad-based government and that he chaired all the meetings. He opened the lid of the can by declaring that he has been the one chairing all the broad-based meetings between Raila and Ruto, which probably makes him the brainchild and the chief negotiator in the arrangement.

“Those who are saying Oburu does not talk are talking nonsense. In this broad-based arrangement, I want to assure those who are saying that it was only Raila who could handle it and that Oburu does not know anything about it. I want to tell them that all the meetings of the broad-based arrangements with Ruto, the chairman has been Oburu Odinga before you here today,” he said.

Dr Oburu revealed that the meeting which culminated into the appointment of ODM experts into President Ruto’s cabinet was chaired by him. He negotiated for the cabinet slots and the 14 permanent secretaries slots.

The Militant Wing

The late Raila often came to the defense of Sifuna and Orengo whenever they came under barrage of attacks from the diplomatic wing.

Interestingly, Raila tasked Sifuna, a member of the militant wing, to write the 10-point agenda that was signed by Ruto and Raila. It gave the roadmap of the working relationship between UDA and ODM. This Raila pulled another card on Ruto and the diplomatic wing and ensured his exit plan went uninterrupted.

In his last meeting, Raila left the legislators and party officials with a powerful question: “Who told you that ODM will not have a presidential candidate?” which has become the bone of contention.

This powerful statement has divided ODM right in the middle, with Dr Oburu declaring that ODM will not present a presidential candidate and will support President Ruto, while Sifuna and Orengo insist that ODM must present a presidential candidate as per Raila’s last wish.

Suba South MP Caroli Omondi said Raila told them not to propagate the two-term agenda.

“Raila told us not to say two-term. And if any MP wants to contradict that, let them try and we will tell them where they were told. Only Alego MP Sam Atandi raised his hand as the chairman and member of budget committee and asked Raila to allow him sometimes to say two-term. Baba’s instructions were that only Mbadi and Wandayi should say two-term, the rest were a no,” he said.

The nightmare

President Ruto’s nightmare is the Linda Mwananchi faction which seems to be gaining traction and redefining the political landscape of the country.

The team is enjoying the support of the youthful and disenfranchised Kenyans as they speak their language.

This is the team which is likely to determine the presidential election and they seem to have stolen the soul of Raila.

For Ruto, this is where the contest lies. Raila’s exit plan, which has come back to haunt him.

By Anderson Ojwang

Winnie Odinga may have gone through her late father, Raila Amolo Odinga’s, political mentorship and guidance over time.

Raila may have prepared to hand over the baton to his daughter at an appropriate time, but as fate would have it, he never had the luxury of witnessing such a transition.

The former Prime Minister could have mentored and exposed Winnie to his various local and global political networks, which will become handy in her political pursuit.

But currently, Winnie is caught in a fierce political battle over the soul of her father’s political party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

In the two divides are her uncle, now the party leader Dr Oburu Oginga-led faction of national chairperson Gladys Wanga, Director of Elections Junet Mohammed, deputy party leaders Simba Arati and Abdulsamad Nassir, against the ODM secretary Edwin Sifuna’s faction of Siaya Governor James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino among others.

Winnie’s dilemma began immediately after the death of her father when she called for the appointment of a new team to manage the broad-based arrangement between ODM and President William Ruto.

The Broad-based dilemma

This was a direct affront on her uncle, Dr Oburu, which divided the Kawuor clan and the party right in the middle.

During the last November ODM celebrations in Mombasa, Winnie called for a National Delegates Conference (NDC) to choose a new team to manage the broad-based arrangement with President William Ruto.

“There is something I wanted to tell you. When it came to the matter of broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person with the management of that relationship. That person was Baba Raila Amolo Odinga. That relationship is complicated and therefore we are looking and we are wondering, those who are taking upon themselves to manage it now, are they capable of managing that relationship? I don’t think that is the question for me to answer. That is the question for the people of ODM to answer. That is why, party leader, why I am requesting, we need to go back to the people and have an NDC to see who the people want to pick to manage that same relationship,” she said.

But Oburu responded by challenging those opposed to him to a political duel at the National Delegates Conference.

“Those who are saying that Oburu is not validly elected, I challenge them, if they say it is NDC, let us go with them to the NDC and I will call it very soon,” he said.

And Oburu was on Friday confirmed as the party leader of the ODM while his opponents held a parallel people’s national delegates conference.

Deputy party leader Dilemma

Winnie Odinga had strategically placed herself to be appointed as one of the deputy party leaders of the ODM.

Recently ODM Nairobi branch delegates endorsed Winnie for the position of deputy party leader, citing the need to fill a leadership gap in the capital.

The endorsement, backed by representatives from all 17 constituencies in the county, comes amid calls for equitable regional representation within the party’s top leadership.

Makadara MP George Aladwa said consultations over the past two months culminated in the decision to front Winnie.

“We have had several meetings in the last two months to look for a representative. Every region has representation in the party. Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga left us with no representative in the Nairobi region,” Aladwa said.

Winnie said the Nairobi branch must have a seat at the SNDC on March 27th because of their contribution and that ODM was her home.

“ODM is our home. ODM is the party my father built. Why should I leave and go where? I will remain in ODM. In this journey it has not been easy. We still have a place to go and the party position should be considered for those people who have put their lives in the struggle. It is in Nairobi where we demonstrate and not the villages. There are no demos in the villages. You cannot deny Nairobi its right. Nairobi must have a seat. On the day, on March 27th, Nairobi will have our day and say,” she said.

But on Friday, sensing that the wish would not be granted, Winnie walked into the meeting late, broke protocol and when given a chance to speak said there was need for a new ODM.

She called for reconciliation among the dissenting voices in the party and said no member should be expelled.

But Sifuna declared that he could not be secretary general for Oburu, terming his team as mediocre.

She is now conflicted on whether to remain and fight for her father’s party from within or join the Linda Mwananchi group.

Babu recently told Winnie to join their team and be part of a revolution in the country.

Linda Mwananchi

Winnie stood with Sifuna when he was sacked by the party and wrote that it was not well. She attended the press conference by Sifuna and the team but did not speak.

Already, the team is gaining momentum and drawing organic crowds. It is just a matter of time before they unveil their political vehicle as ODM enters into a pre-election coalition with President Ruto.

As the politics gain momentum, Winnie will be forced to make the difficult decision on whether to stick with her uncle or join the youthful team.

By Anderson Ojwang

President William Ruto is having a field day in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in the current power game after the exit of the late Raila Amolo Odinga.

President Ruto in October during Raila’s burial said he will ensure that the party doesn’t slip into the hands of those opposed to the broad-based government.

The chess game in the ODM power matrix has left some as pawns in the game while others are fast becoming kings and monsters to President Ruto.

The script began immediately after the formation of the broad-based government arrangement, and it took a different trajectory with the death of Raila.

Raila was the stumbling block and blew hot and cold over the future coalition, even directing his members against propagating a two-term agenda.

Raila went ahead to ask his team, “Who told you ODM will not field a presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections?”

According to South MP Caroli Omondi, who was at the meeting, the late Raila only allowed Cabinet Secretary for Treasury John Mbadi and his Energy counterpart Opiyo Wandayi to champion Ruto’s two-term campaigns, while the MPs were restrained save for Alego MP Sam Atandi who had asked for exemptions.

“Raila told us not to say two-term. And if any MP wants to contradict that, let them try and we will tell them where they were told.”

The plot building

Raila’s death marked the beginning of the power game. While the Secretary General Edwin Sifuna was on board a flight to India to collect the body of Raila, back at home, a team was meeting to install Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga as the acting party leader, bypassing immediate former acting party leader Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o.

Omondi gave an insight into what could be happening in the party and the emergence of a mysterious hand pulling shots in the party.

“There was a very quick transition even before Baba’s body arrived. When Mzee Oburu announced that he had accepted to be the party leader, he said he did not even know that there was a process to make him party leader. What that implies is that that call came from somewhere else. And that worries me a lot. This is because it therefore seems that ODM is getting directions and controls from somewhere else,” he said.

The plot thickens at ODM at 20 celebrations

Hardly 40 days of mourning Raila, ODM was in Mombasa to celebrate the 20 years, even after the protest by Raila’s family for postponement.

From Mombasa, ODM Linda Ground was birthed and embarked on a countrywide tour with a view to test ground ahead of pre-election coalition pact with UDA.

That marked the last public function of Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and the unsuccessful attempt by Oburu to sack him.

The Linda Ground plot

The once cash-strapped ODM finally gained flamboyance and held its meetings in five-star and high-end hotels.

Sifuna revealed that the funds and resources being used in the ongoing Linda Ground engagement did not come from the party.

He said the party was owed over Sh12 billion by the government for the political party funds, which has negated its operations.

“The money and the resources you see being spent on the ODM rallies called Linda Ground, the monies do not come from ODM headquarters. For me, I can only account for the monies because I am a signatory to the bank accounts, Timothy Bosire is a signatory to the bank accounts. The last money we expended as ODM officially was for the celebration in Mombasa and it was a fraction of what you saw there,” he said.

Kisumu Women Representative Ruth Odinga wondered about the source of money flowing into the party.

“As a signatory to the ODM account, if he questions where all the money for choppers, big tents and ODM branded t-shirts and caps in the ‘Linda Ground’ conventions are coming from, why should anyone abuse him? Those with the answers, why can’t you provide them? Are governors funding the campaigns? Are MPs doing it from CDF kitty? Did we get a philanthropist that a Party SG is not aware of who is funding the clearly expensive public fora? And what is in it for the philanthropist?” she questioned.

Ida Odinga appointment and exit from the scene

The appointment of Raila’s widow, Mama Ida Odinga, was strategic and leaves a vacuum in the ongoing political re-organization.

After showing support for Sifuna and urging for dialogue, her continued stay in the political space would thaw any move in the power game.

Her appointment strategically leaves her out of the political space and her hands are tied by the appointment.

She takes over from ODM Secretary General Ababu Namwamba, who has moved to Uganda.

The Return of Ababu

At the ODM’s SDC, Ababu Namwamba reappears. Strategic reappearance. A key ally of President Ruto, a possible candidate for the Secretary General post.

In Ababu, President Ruto hopes he can finally have total control of the party should Ababu be made the Secretary General.

Winnie Odinga plot

She is the hard nut to crack. The only surviving soul of her political journey. Her journey to become one of the deputy party leaders has been frustrated.

Reason: her presence in all the ODM organs would stagnate the power game and she is capable of masterminding a coup.

The Nairobi branch has insisted that Winnie Odinga must be made one of the party’s deputy leaders against opposition from some quarters. This could be the fault line leading to a chaotic situation during the meeting.

Winnie said the Nairobi branch must have a seat at the NDC on March 27th because of their contribution and that ODM was her home.

“ODM is our home. ODM is the party my father built. Why should I leave and go where? I will remain in ODM. In this journey it has not been easy. We still have a place to go and the party position should be considered for those people who have put their lives in the struggle. It is in Nairobi where we demonstrate and not the villages. There are no demos in the villages. You cannot deny Nairobi its right. Nairobi must have a seat. On the day, on March 27th, Nairobi will have our day and say,” she said.

The Monster in the waiting

President Ruto has successfully succeeded in achieving his mission in controlling the ODM but has also created a political monster.

The Linda Mwananchi faction of the party has the soul of Raila and enjoys organic support. It is a tsunami in the making and will not rely on the party to champion its agenda.

If anything, the train has left the station and it is just a matter of time before ODM is relegated to the periphery as Ruto fights the monster.