By Anderson Ojwang

The dice is cast and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could be witnessing imminent political departures by either the Linda Ground or the Linda Mwanainchi.

The battle lines have been drawn and every group is playing their cards close to the chest and making calculated and timely moves to outsmart one another.

Currently, the Linda Ground of the party leader Dr Oburu Oginga is riding high and calling the shots, but above and beneath the political surface, it is faced with unknown obstacles which may soon rear their ugly face and ground it to a halt.

While Linda Mwanainchi of Party Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi MP Babu Owino and Siaya Governor James Orengo have received huge ratings from the masses, they are limping over lack of the party machinery. The faction did not attend Tuesday’s Parliamentary Group meeting and instead chose to condole with the family of Dikir MP Johana Ngemo.

At the PG, chaired by Oburu, a section of the Linda Mwanainchi group attended, in what could be viewed as a technical and tactical move as they plan to roll out the next course of their political agenda.

Oburu posted on his social media platform about the meeting and the various decisions the party arrived at.

“This afternoon I held an ODM Parliamentary Group meeting at Parliament Buildings. As a party we have officially resolved to commence pre-coalition negotiations with UDA.

Our primary focus will be championing the implementation of fundamental issues affecting Kenyans, specifically those outlined in the NADCO report.

Furthermore, we are committed to ensuring Parliament allocates the necessary budget to address these priorities, with a particular emphasis on compensating victims of demonstrations.”

And the Minority Leader in the Assembly Junet Mohammed read out the party resolutions, where it approved and upheld all the recent decisions taken by the Central Committee and the National Governing Council.

“We have held an ODM Party Joint Parliamentary Group Meeting presided over by Party Leader Hon. Dr Oburu Odinga, EGH, MP.

After frank deliberations, members approved and upheld all recent decisions taken by the Central Committee and the National Executive Committee,” he said.

The PG endorsed the decision by the emergency NEC meeting to install Hon. Dr Oburu Oginga as Party Leader and also the decision by the National Executive Committee to suspend Hon. Edwin Sifuna as Secretary General.

Junet said the PG endorsed the decision by the Central Committee to support the ongoing working arrangement between ODM and the UDA parties under the Broad-based Government arrangement, and supported the decision that mandated the party to engage in structured negotiations with UDA and any other like-minded party for purposes of forming a coalition ahead of the 2027 election.

“The PG approved the decision by the relevant party organs to pursue compensation for victims of past election-related human rights abuses, and that the PG undertook to work with partners and pursue alternative mechanisms for the matter to be acted on urgently and conclusively,” he said.

Junet said the PG endorsed the decision by the relevant party organs for the party to pull out of Azimio and the decision by the NEC to convene a Special National Delegates Convention on March 27, 2027.

“The PG agreed to hold a joint PG with the UDA next Tuesday at which the MPs will receive a briefing on the implementation status of the 10-point agenda, and mandated the Party Leader to begin internal processes, including modalities and representation for the upcoming coalition negotiations with the UDA Party and other like-minded parties,” he said.

But the Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi at the meeting said the party was at a critical crossroads that called for urgent address of internal divisions.

“I warned my colleagues that the party was meeting at a time when it is heavily divided, a situation I described as dangerous to its unity and future prospects.

I reminded members of party leader Raila Odinga’s famous words, “Who told you?”, urging colleagues to use the phrase as a rallying call for unity and resolve,” he said.

He challenged the party to adopt a bold political posture ahead of the next General Election, arguing that ODM is strong enough to field a presidential candidate instead of angling for the position of Deputy President.

“ODM is a national movement with a solid support base. We should not diminish ourselves by settling for lesser positions,” Osotsi said.

Osotsi raised concerns over the ten-point agenda signed in March last year between ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), noting that the agreement has not been implemented as expected.

He pointed out that the deadline for the implementation of the agenda is Saturday, March 7, 2026, cautioning proponents of the two-term narrative to be mindful of the timelines and commitments contained in the agreement.

Removal of Edwin Sifuna

Osotsi said the move to remove Sifuna was an attempt to sideline leaders with divergent views and was deepening divisions within the party.

He called for an urgent review of the decision, arguing that ODM has historically thrived on robust internal debate and tolerance of differing opinions.

“Silencing alternative voices weakens us. If we are to remain strong and united, we must accommodate diversity of thought and prioritize fairness,” Osotsi stated.

Orengo could plot a killer pass on the Oburu team, who he said has never been part of the struggle and the reason why Raila became the heir to the throne.

By Kraus Osieko

Nyakach politician Jonathan Okoth Opande has emerged as a frontrunner in the race for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) county chairperson seat in Kisumu, drawing strong backing from delegates across several sub-counties ahead of Friday’s vote.

With only two days to the election at the Tom Mboya Labour College, Opande’s supporters say the momentum on the ground clearly favours him as the party prepares to elect new county leadership.

His main challenger is Market Milimani Ward MCA Seth Kanga, setting up a contest that has stirred political interest across the county.

In Nyakach, Opande’s home turf, party officials have openly declared their support, describing him as a committed grassroots mobiliser who has consistently stood with members.

Nyakach ODM sub-branch chairman Cllr Charles Seko said delegates from the area have unanimously endorsed Opande for the seat.

“As Nyakach delegates, we have made our decision and we are standing firm,” Seko said.

“Opande is our son. He has stood with party members whenever we needed him and supported delegates whenever there was a challenge.”

Seko said Opande’s long-standing involvement in party activities and his readiness to respond to the needs of members have earned him trust among grassroots leaders.

“Leadership is about service and commitment.

His actions and dedication to the party speak for themselves. That is why we believe he is best suited to steer ODM in Kisumu County,” he added.

Beyond Nyakach, Opande has also reportedly made significant inroads in other sub-counties, including Kisumu East, an area considered politically strategic in the contest.

Delegates from across the county have cited his accessibility and consistent engagement as key factors influencing their support.

Popularly known as Mullah, Opande has in recent months increased his presence at community events across the county.

He recently attended a funds drive aimed at supporting labourers in Kisumu and was also present at a youth empowerment forum that brought together local leaders and national figures, including Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi.

Supporters argue that such engagements demonstrate his commitment to uplifting communities and strengthening party unity.

Many describe him as a philanthropist whose outreach initiatives have positively impacted residents across the county.
However, the race remains competitive.

Kanga, who serves as the MCA for Market Milimani Ward in Kisumu Central and also holds the position of branch chairman, continues to command support in parts of Kisumu Central.

His experience within party leadership structures has been cited by his backers as an asset in managing county affairs.

Kanga is also said to be eyeing the Kisumu East parliamentary seat in the 2027 general election, adding another dimension to the contest.

Political observers note that this ambition has generated debate among some delegates about his future political priorities.

Questions have also arisen regarding his status as a delegate, with discussions centring on whether he will participate as a representative from Kisumu Central, where he serves as MCA, or from Kisumu East, where he hails from.

The matter has reportedly created confusion among some party members as the election approaches.

Despite the undercurrents, both candidates are intensifying their final campaigns, seeking to consolidate support ahead of the decisive vote.

Delegates say the election will play a crucial role in shaping ODM’s strength and cohesion at the county level as the party prepares for future political contests.

As anticipation builds, all eyes are now on Friday’s gathering at the Tom Mboya Labour College, where delegates will determine who takes charge of ODM affairs in Kisumu County.

For Opande and his supporters, confidence remains high that the momentum built over recent weeks will translate into victory at the ballot.

By Team

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) grassroots elections have exposed the soft underbelly of the blue-eyed boy of party leader Dr. Oburu Oginga, Nyando MP Jared Okello.

Okello recently hosted Dr. Oburu at his home, where he bragged to the electorate about having sponsored the motion to sack the ODM Secretary-General, Edwin Sifuna, during the recent National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting.

Oburu, at the function, said Okello has been a good family friend and that he has been visiting him both at his rural and Nairobi homes.

But back in Nyando, his opponent for the parliamentary seat, Kenneth Ooko, has been making inroads both in the party and among the electorate.

That is why he recently moved to the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal, which gave him temporary reprieve by halting the harmonized Nyando branch office process.

Okello and three others have sued ODM, Ahero MCA Kenneth Ooko, East Kano/Wawidhi MCA Moses Ochele, and National Election Coordination Committee (NECC) Chairperson Emily Awiti, accusing the committee of unlawfully taking over the harmonization process.

Okello, through his lawyer, argued that on February 24, 2026, to their utter dismay, the Chairperson of the National Election Coordination Committee (NECC), Ms. Hon. Emily Awiti, proceeded with the unlawful meeting ex parte and in the absence of the applicants, and issued a determination in favor of Ooko and Ochele.

They said that by the committee accepting the list presented by the 2nd and 3rd respondents as the valid list for Nyando Sub-County branch delegates, it was a travesty of justice.

Okello argued that on the following day, February 25, 2026, the Chairperson of the National Election Coordination Committee (NECC), Ms. Hon. Emily Awiti, issued a notice announcing that it would conduct the County Delegates elections for Kisumu County on Friday, March 6, 2026, from 9:00 a.m. until 12:00 p.m.

“The complainants accused ODM and the Chairperson of the National Election Coordination Committee of having ignored the fact that Nyando Constituency has five (5) wards, represented by five Members of the County Assembly of Kisumu,” they argued.

Okello, through his lawyer, argued that each Member of the County Assembly is an elected representative of his or her area, and only two members representing two wards were part of the alleged harmonization meeting.

That the majority of the three wards, representing 60% of Nyando Constituency, were disenfranchised and locked out of the negotiation and/or harmonization process.

They argued that the actions of Awiti were unlawful, unprocedural, discriminatory, and disenfranchising to a majority of ODM members in Nyando Constituency.

They further argued that they have not only been prejudiced and disenfranchised by the actions of NECC, but also that their rights to participate in the elections and affairs of the ODM party have been grossly violated, contrary to the protections under Article 38 of the Constitution.

The decision of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party to appoint a new Harmonization Sub-Committee, in their view, was premised on the principle of the rules of natural justice, to the effect that the National Election Coordination Committee (NECC) could not sit as an arbiter over a dispute whose outcome it presided over, having been the organizer and referee for the Nyando Constituency grassroots party elections.

According to the complainants, the decision by the Chairperson of the ODM National Election Coordination Committee (NECC), Ms. Hon. Emily Awiti, militates against the old legal principle that “a person cannot sit in his or her own judgment” (Nemo judex in causa sua).

On March 2, 2026, the Tribunal issued orders suspending the implementation of the February 24, 2026 decision by the ODM National Election Coordinating Committee, pending the hearing and determination of the dispute.

Okello and Ooko have engaged in a bitter race for the Nyando parliamentary seat, with the latter enjoying the networks of former MP Fred Outa and previous political opponents of the incumbent.

Okello, in the 2022 ODM nomination, received a direct ticket and went on to successfully defend the seat after defeating his opponents.

Currently, most of his political opponents have rallied behind Ooko for the 2027 General Election for the Nyando parliamentary seat.

Al Musasia

Politics is rarely won by sentiment. It is won by strategy, timing, and an honest reading of political reality. At critical moments in history, parties face decisions that determine whether they expand their influence or slowly fade into irrelevance. The current leadership contest within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) presents such a moment.
For ODM, the question is not merely who becomes party leader. The deeper question is whether the party will make a strategic decision that protects its candidates nationwide, expands its parliamentary strength, and positions itself for a credible presidential victory in the next electoral cycle.

That strategic decision may require a difficult but necessary step: Oburu Odinga choosing statesmanship over competition and stepping aside to allow a unified leadership under Senator Edwin Sifuna, supported by Governor James Orengo.

The Political Reality of Zoning

Kenyan politics increasingly operates under a strategic doctrine that can be described as political zoning. Powerful parties consolidate territory by negotiating where candidates will run and where they will not. When a party loses negotiating leverage, its candidates are often sacrificed in favor of coalition arrangements that benefit the dominant partner.

This is the danger facing ODM today.

If the party enters future negotiations weakened by internal fragmentation, it risks becoming vulnerable to zoning arrangements by dominant political forces such as UDA. In such a scenario, ODM candidates across multiple regions could find themselves effectively neutralized before campaigns even begin.

Zoning does not merely weaken individual candidates. It erodes the negotiating power of the entire party.
A divided party cannot protect its political territory.

The Value of Strategic Withdrawal

History is full of leaders who strengthened their movements not by insisting on leadership but by recognizing when their withdrawal could produce a stronger political structure.
A strategic withdrawal by Oburu Odinga would not represent defeat. On the contrary, it would represent statesmanship.

By stepping aside, Oburu would accomplish several critical objectives:

• Preserve party unity at a moment when fragmentation could weaken ODM nationally.
• Strengthening ODM’s bargaining power in future coalition negotiations.
• Protect ODM candidates from zoning arrangements that could wipe out the party’s parliamentary strength.

Position the party around a younger national figure capable of energizing new voters.

Such a move would transform Oburu’s role from competitor to kingmaker and institutional guardian of ODM.

Few political legacies are stronger than that.

The Rising Sifuna Factor

Senator Edwin Sifuna represents a different political energy within ODM. He speaks fluently to the generation that now dominates Kenya’s demographics: the youth, the urban middle class, and the digitally connected electorate. But his value goes beyond generational symbolism.

Sifuna has demonstrated several qualities that matter in modern politics:

• Communication discipline in defending party positions nationally
• Institutional loyalty to ODM during turbulent political transitions
• Legal and intellectual grounding that appeals to policy-minded voters
• Ability to mobilize digital and grassroots constituencies simultaneously
  In many ways, Sifuna embodies the next stage of ODM’s evolution. With the guidance of experienced figures such as James Orengo and the moral authority of the party’s founding leadership, his candidacy could create the kind of generational coalition that successful political movements require.

The Cost of Strategic Miscalculation

The alternative path carries serious risks. If the broad-based faction within ODM misreads the political moment and chooses internal competition over consolidation, the consequences could be severe.

A fragmented ODM risks:

• Losing negotiating power in national alliances
• Watching its candidates fall victim to zoning arrangements
• Allowing rival parties to consolidate regions that ODM once dominated

Weakening its parliamentary presence

In politics, arrogance is often punished by arithmetic. Numbers, not rhetoric, determine power.

A Moment for Statesmanship

Oburu Odinga occupies a unique position in Kenya’s political history. As a senior statesman and a figure deeply connected to the ideological roots of ODM, his decisions carry symbolic weight. If he chooses to step aside and rally the party behind a unified leadership structure led by Sifuna and supported by experienced figures like Orengo, he would not diminish his stature. He would elevate it.

He would demonstrate that ODM is larger than any individual ambition. And he would secure his place as a guardian of the party’s long-term survival.

The Strategic Path Forward

• The path that strengthens ODM is clear:
• Unity behind emerging leadership
• Institutional guidance from experienced statesmen
• Strategic positioning to prevent political zoning
• Expansion of parliamentary strength nationwide

A united ODM behind Edwin Sifuna would send a powerful message across Kenya: the party is renewing itself without abandoning its foundations.

Political movements endure when they balance renewal with continuity. ODM now stands at such a crossroads.

If Oburu Odinga chooses the path of strategic withdrawal and unity, the party can enter the next electoral cycle stronger, more organized, and better positioned to protect its candidates and pursue national leadership.

In politics, as in architecture, the stone once overlooked often becomes the cornerstone.

ODM has the opportunity to recognize that moment.
And history rarely waits for those who hesitate.

By Anderson Ojwang

The spirit of the late doyen Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the founder of Ford-Kenya, may have finally departed from the party, and now it could be limping to its grave.

The final departure of Jaramogi’s spirit came with the death of his son, the late Raila Amolo Odinga, in October last year, who was also a founder and a member of the Young Turks.

In Raila, the spirit of Ford-K remained alive even after he resigned and joined the now-defunct National Development Party (NDP) after its merger with KANU.

Ford-K, once a national and vibrant party for the last three decades, witnessed dwindling fortunes after the deaths of Jaramogi and the late Wamalwa Kijana.

After the death of Oginga, Ford-K was embroiled in a power struggle between the Wamalwa–James Orengo axis and Jaramogi’s son, Raila.

The all-out power struggle left Ford-K disadvantaged after Raila resigned from the party and from Parliament, and sought re-election on the ticket of the now-defunct National Development Party (NDP).

Raila won the subsequent by-election on the NDP ticket, and that marked a mass defection from Ford-K to NDP in the 1997 General Election in Jaramogi’s political strongholds.

Ford-K lost in most of Jaramogi’s strongholds, save for Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, where it became dominant.

The November Chwele–Kabuchai Ward By-Election

Last year, during the Chwele–Kabuchai ward by-election — the home turf of the party leader and Speaker of the National Assembly, Moses Wetang’ula, and Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka — the party candidate lost to an independent candidate.

The loss was a condemnation of Ford-K and Wetang’ula, who for the last two decades have been the dominant political players in the region.

The by-election was so important to Wetang’ula that he was on the ground to vote and ensure the results went according to his wish.

Wetang’ula wrote on his X handle:
“This morning I cast my vote at Namakhele Primary School during the Chwele–Kabuchai ward by-elections. I urged our residents to come out in large numbers and exercise their democratic right without fear, assuring them that adequate security officers had been deployed across the area.”

Wetang’ula, in a high-powered entourage comprising Bungoma Governor and Deputy Party Leader Kenneth Lusaka, Senator Wafula Wakoli, Secretary-General John Chikati, and Members of the County Assembly led by Deputy Speaker Stephen Wamalwa, still lost the election.

“We called on the electorate to stay united and protect the political heritage of our great party,” he said then.

But to his political opponents, defeating Wetang’ula and Ford-K marked a new dispensation in the region and ushered in political freedom.

DAP-K wrote on its Facebook page:
“Pale Kabuchai, Mamba amezama katika mazingira yake (Kabuchai, the crocodile has drowned in its own environment). Even a crocodile can die in water, so trust me, bad days happen to everyone. Mamba kesha zalama (crocodile, sleep well).”

The independent candidate, Erick Wekesa, defeated Ford-K’s Vincent Maunda, redefining the region’s politics and establishing Governor George Natembeya as a possible emerging and influential political player in the Bukusu community.

Wekesa was fronted by Natembeya, former Bungoma Governor Wyclif Wangamati, and Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga, who have all fallen out with Wetang’ula to rewrite the political story of the region.

Sifuna’s Mantra in Luhya Land

Ford-K and Wetang’ula now have to contend with the emergence of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who is fast rising in the national political landscape.

Sifuna, a protégé of Raila and the Secretary-General of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), has stormed into national political stardom after the formation of the Linda Mwananchi faction within ODM, which opposes a pre-election coalition with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

The Linda Mwananchi faction has held two successful rallies in Busia and Kakamega, which have radically changed the politics of the region.

Already, MPs from the region are rallying behind Sifuna to be a presidential candidate, while Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi have declared interest in the presidency in 2032 and will be supporting President Ruto’s re-election.

Kabuchai MP Majimbo Kalasinga warned that MPs opposed to Sifuna will be voted out in the 2027 General Election.

“If you come from Western and you don’t sing Sifuna’s song, you are going home. Those who want to contest for the presidency in 2027, we have no problem with them. For us, we have Sifuna as our 2027 presidential candidate,” he said.

The possible entry of Sifuna in the presidential contest may be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back, and Ford-K may breathe its last in the 2027 elections.

Wanyonyi’s Gubernatorial Candidature: A Nightmare for Ford-K

Apart from Sifuna’s wave, Ford-K and Wetang’ula will have to contend with Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi, who has declared interest in the gubernatorial seat.

Tim will not run for the seat on a Ford-K ticket, and his candidature is a nightmare for the party in its backyard.

Party leaders and organs have promised him a battle of his life.

“The only party I cannot contest against is Ford-K, but I don’t know which party I will use,” he said.

In a swift rejoinder, Ford-K Secretary-General John Chikati said the party will conduct its nomination for the gubernatorial candidate and had not settled on Tim Wanyonyi.

“At no time have we talked with Tim Wanyonyi, either at the management level of Ford Kenya or in a structured way, that he is going to be our governor and that we are going to campaign for him. So we are shocked that he is saying he is not going to vie on a Ford Kenya ticket as if he is a member of Ford Kenya. He is fighting a losing battle,” he said.

Senator Wafula Wakoli said:
“We were looking for a leader who would unite all parties, residents, and tribes together, but my brother Tim has shown that he is not the person we thought he was. He has removed the burden that was on our shoulders as Ford-K leaders, and we are ready.”

Tim teamed up with Natembeya, Wangamati, and Majimbo Kalasinga, among others, during the recent Chwele–Kabuchai ward by-election to defeat Ford Kenya in the ward contest.