By Anderson Ojwang

With only five days to the end of the first year of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of the late Raila Amolo Odinga and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) of President William Ruto, we delve into the successes and failures as we head to the review.

In this interactive interview, we engaged former Alego MP Sam Weya, who gives his view and verdict on the arrangement ahead of the review.

Q1: Why did ODM enter the framework?

Hon. Weya: On this day one year ago, ODM entered into a structured national cooperation framework with the government.

Our decision was guided by three principles:
• Safeguarding national stability
• Advancing constitutional and institutional reforms
• Protecting Kenyans from economic and governance excesses

This was not a coalition arrangement.
It was not a power-sharing agreement.
It was a reform-centered framework designed to de-escalate political tension and deliver measurable change.

Today, we present a factual progress review.

Q2: When and for how long was the MoU valid?

Hon. Weya:
• The MoU was signed on 7 March 2025 at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre.
• It was intended as a framework of cooperation and reform between ODM and UDA, not a formal coalition agreement.
• According to political statements, the agreement was set to run for one year and officially expire on 7 March 2026 — exactly one year after signing.
• Part of the pact required bi-monthly progress reports and a final implementation report due by the March 2026 deadline.

So the duration was roughly one year, with milestones and a final review scheduled for March 7, 2026.

Q3: What were the 10 points in the agenda?

Hon. Weya: The MoU’s 10-point agenda focused mainly on governance reforms and national cohesion rather than on elections or party alliances. Here they are in summary:

1. Full implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report.
2. Inclusivity in budgetary allocations and public appointments.
3. Protecting and strengthening devolution.
4. Economic investment in youth opportunities (e.g., agriculture, ICT, blue economy).
5. Leadership integrity and ending opulence in public office.
6. Protection of the right to peaceful assembly and compensation for past rights violations.
7. Forensic audit of national debt and how it was used.
8. Intensified fight against corruption.
9. Stopping wasteful public spending.
10. Protecting sovereignty, the rule of law, constitutionalism, and press freedom.

Q4: Why is it seen as “nothing has been achieved”?

Hon. Weya: Many observers and ODM leaders argued that by late February 2026, the committee responsible for implementing these reforms had not produced clear outcomes and was under pressure to show progress.

Some key issues noted in coverage and commentary included:
• The implementation committee was late in submitting a complete review.
• Critics said the UDA government wasn’t serious about honoring the pact.
• There was internal ODM disagreement on whether the deal was delivering for the public.

Q5: Given limited progress, what should ODM do?

Hon. Weya: This is ultimately a political judgment, but here are reasonable options ODM could consider based on democratic practice and political strategy:

a) Insist on accountability
ODM could publicly demand full transparency on what has (and hasn’t) been delivered on each of the 10 points, using the March 2026 review as leverage.

b) Use political leverage
If the government has not delivered, ODM can use parliamentary tools (debates, oversight committees) to press for concrete action.

c) Clarify its political positioning
Because the MoU focused on reforms rather than an electoral pact, ODM can publicly clarify what it plans for the 2027 General Election — whether it will run its own candidate, support a coalition, or negotiate a new agreement.

d) Propose a fresh framework or coalition
If both sides still see value in cooperation, ODM could propose a new or updated framework with clearer deliverables, timelines, and accountability mechanisms.

e) Reaffirm its independence
ODM can reaffirm its party’s autonomy and commitments to its supporters, especially if the MoU’s goals were not met.

Overall View

Hon. Weya:
• The ODM–UDA MoU was a one-year political cooperation agreement from March 2025 to March 2026.
• It outlined a 10-point reform agenda mainly about governance, inclusion, devolution, and rights.
• Implementation stalled, and many feel little progress was made.
• ODM’s options include pushing for accountability, defining its 2027 strategy, or renegotiating cooperation.

ODM Side – Criticisms & Internal Reactions

1️⃣ “Implementation Has Stalled”

Several ODM leaders argued that the agreement did not translate into measurable reforms, especially on:
• Cost-of-living relief
• Audit of public debt
• Protection of civil liberties
• Full implementation of the NADCO report

They claimed the government slowed down reforms once political tensions eased.

2️⃣ Edwin Sifuna’s Position

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna was publicly cautious about extending or softening the agreement.

His key concerns included:
• Lack of structured reporting on progress
• Risk of ODM appearing absorbed into government
• Fear that the party was losing its oversight identity

He maintained the MoU was not a coalition but a reform framework — and should be judged strictly on deliverables.

3️⃣ James Orengo’s Criticism

Siaya Governor James Orengo was among those openly critical.

He suggested:
• The government was not fully committed to structural reforms
• ODM risked weakening its opposition credentials
• Grassroots supporters were confused about ODM’s political direction

Grassroots Discontent

At the county level, some ODM supporters felt:
• The party had “softened” toward the government
• Economic hardships had not reduced
• There was no visible dividend for supporting the cooperation

This created internal pressure for ODM to redefine its political position before 2027.

UDA / Government Side – Responses & Position

“The MoU Was About Stability”

Supporters of President William Ruto argued:
• The agreement helped cool post-election tensions
• It created space for economic recovery
• It reduced street protests and political instability

From their view, the drop in political temperature was itself a success.

Reform Takes Time

UDA figures maintained:
• Constitutional and fiscal reforms require parliamentary processes
• Some NADCO proposals needed legal amendments
• Economic reforms cannot be instant

They argued expectations were unrealistic within one year.

Not a Power-Sharing Deal

Government allies emphasized:
• It was not a handshake-style power-sharing pact
• ODM was not formally in government
• Cooperation did not mean shared executive authority

This was meant to counter claims that ODM had “joined the government.”

Cure for Political Tension

The disagreement boiled down to three issues:

ODM Concern | UDA Response
No visible reform progress | Reform is gradual
Risk of losing opposition identity | Cooperation ≠ coalition
Grassroots dissatisfaction | Stability benefits everyone

Politically, What This Means for ODM

Hon. Weya: Given the mixed reactions, ODM faces three strategic choices:

1. Reassert opposition strength — distance itself clearly and resume aggressive oversight.
2. Demand measurable benchmarks — publish a public scorecard on each MoU item.
3. Redefine its 2027 position early — clarify whether it remains a reform partner, independent challenger, or coalition negotiator.

THE 10-POINT REFORM AGENDA: STATUS REVIEW

A. Cost-of-Living Relief

Commitment: Immediate measures to ease economic hardship.

Status:
• Limited interventions implemented.
• No sustained structural reduction in household costs.
• Fuel, food, and essential commodities remain high.

ODM Position: Stabilization without tangible relief is incomplete. Immediate fiscal and tax policy review is required.

B. Audit & Transparency of Public Debt

Commitment: Transparent audit and publication of debt obligations.

Status:
• No comprehensive independent audit publicly tabled.
• Public debt trajectory remains unclear to citizens.

ODM Position: A time-bound, independent audit process must be initiated and reported to Parliament.

C. Protection of Civil Liberties

Commitment: Safeguarding constitutional rights and lawful protest.

Status:
• Reduced political tensions.
• However, isolated concerns persist regarding enforcement standards.

ODM Position: Institutional safeguards must be formalized, not dependent on political goodwill.

D. NADCO Report Implementation

Commitment: Structured implementation of the NADCO proposals.

Status:
• Select legislative discussions initiated.
• Core constitutional and electoral reforms remain pending.

ODM Position: A clear legislative timetable must be published and adhered to.

WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED?

Hon. Weya: ODM acknowledges:
• Political temperature has significantly reduced.
• National dialogue space remains open.
• Parliamentary processes on certain reform areas have begun.

National stability is a shared achievement — and ODM played a central role in securing it.

WHAT REMAINS UNACCOMPLISHED?

Hon. Weya: However, stability alone cannot be the final objective.

The following remain insufficiently addressed:
• Concrete cost-of-living relief
• Structured debt transparency
• Full NADCO implementation
• Institutional reform timelines

Kenyans must see reform outcomes — not just reform conversations.

ODM’S WAY FORWARD

Hon. Weya: ODM now proposes the following steps:

1️⃣ Public Reform Scorecard
A jointly published implementation tracker with measurable milestones.

2️⃣ Time-Bound Legislative Calendar
Clear deadlines for each pending reform item.

3️⃣ Economic Relief Framework
Immediate cross-party parliamentary engagement on tax and cost-of-living interventions.

4️⃣ Accountability Clause
Should agreed benchmarks remain unmet within defined timelines, ODM will re-evaluate its engagement framework.

REAFFIRMING ODM’S IDENTITY

Hon. Weya: ODM remains:
• A reform movement
• A constitutional defender
• A national stability anchor
• An independent political party

Cooperation does not mean absorption.
Engagement does not mean surrender.
Stability does not replace accountability.

MESSAGE TO KENYANS

Hon. Weya: ODM chose dialogue to protect Kenya.
We now insist on delivery to protect Kenyans.

We remain committed to:
• Democratic integrity
• Economic justice
• Devolution
• Institutional reform

Our loyalty is to the Constitution and the people — not to convenience or political comfort.

CONCLUSION

March 7, 2026 marks a review point — not an endpoint.

ODM will continue to pursue reform responsibly.
But reform must now move from discussion to implementation.

By Anderson Ojwang

Siaya Governor James Orengo is preparing for a third triumph over Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Dr. Oburu Oginga.

Orengo has dominated and monopolized his political battles with the Siaya Senator, edging him out to the periphery. Orengo and Oburu first clashed over the ODM ticket for the Siaya senatorial seat.

Currently, Orengo is leading the onslaught against Oburu over the pre-election coalition and the party leadership.

Orengo has managed to isolate Oburu from his close relatives, including Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga and his niece Winnie Odinga, over the coalition.

In the 2013 elections, after the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution which created the Senate seat, Orengo and Oburu engaged in a fierce contest over the position.

Orengo expressed interest in the seat while Oburu also wanted to become the first Senator for Siaya County.

In the contest, Orengo had the support of Siaya MPs led by the late Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo, and Oburu was left exposed and a lonely man in the battle.

Midiwo then said that leaders from Siaya County would not support then Finance Assistant Minister Oburu Oginga’s quest for the county’s Senate seat.

“All elective positions in the county will be distributed based on equity and not the greed of a clique of some politicians,” said Midiwo.

Oburu never forgave Jakoyo for forsaking him despite being his maternal cousin, and in the 2017 General Election, he fronted the current MP Elisha Odhiambo against the incumbent.

With the support of Jakoyo and other MPs, Oburu was forced to swallow humble pie and declared interest in the gubernatorial seat.

But at the ODM primaries, Oburu found that the current Siaya Deputy Governor, Dr. William Oduol, had entrenched himself and won in the disputed nomination.

The ODM party leadership opted to give the ticket to little-known Amoth Rasanga, who won the election, while Oburu was nominated to EALA.

The 2013 loss pushed Oburu to the political periphery, with Orengo becoming one of the key advisors of the late ODM party leader Raila Amolo Odinga.

Oburu was pushed to the background and only gained prominence after the death of his younger brother, when he was made the acting party leader.

But Oburu’s elevation has not been rosy, with Orengo appearing once again to challenge his leadership. He is currently part of the Linda Mwananchi faction, which is opposed to the pre-election coalition pact with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Oburu leads the Linda Ground faction, which has been traversing the country but is facing a serious challenge from the Orengo, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, and Babu Owino-led Linda Mwananchi group, which is gaining momentum.

At a recent National Executive Council (NEC) meeting, Sifuna was sacked as Secretary General and replaced with Busia Woman Representative Catherine Omanyo. However, Sifuna got a reprieve after the Political Parties Tribunal court issued a stay order restraining the party from publishing the new official, leaving Sifuna as the Secretary General.

Orengo said the sacking of Sifuna was unconstitutional and went against the party’s core value of respecting the rule of law.

“How can you remove a substantive party Secretary General while your appointment was an illegality? The holder plotters are in office illegally and do not have locus standi,” he said.

On Sunday, Oburu also hit out at Orengo for trying to lead the community away from the broad-based government.

Orengo recently dismissed Oburu as one who has never been at the forefront of political struggle, saying that is why Raila became the heir to the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

“Oburu has never been on the political front, never tasted teargas, and is not capable of leading ODM,” he said.

He said despite Oburu being born into a political family, he was mostly in the background, which is why he has been on the periphery.

“Oburu was born in a political family. For most of his father’s life, he was in the political background. He never tasted teargas. He has never been inside a police station. It was not by accident that Raila was the true heir.

But he is a good man, but I think he may not be able to lead the party in the right direction if he is being manipulated by characters in the party,” he said.

In Mombasa, Oburu said they would not allow people to pull them back after the party mandated him to embark on negotiations with President William Ruto’s UDA.

“I have made my shoes and I have started to walk, so I cannot fall. I want to tell you Raila left us in a broad-based arrangement. I have been mandated by the party to negotiate with President Ruto. I am soon forming a strong team from ODM to lead the negotiations.

We are not going to allow people to pull us backward. Things will not fall apart,” he said.

And Orengo said the genuine ODM members were in Kitengela and that those in Mombasa should refund President Ruto his money.

“Watu wa ODM ambao wako Mombasa warudishie Ruto pesa zake. (Those ODM members in Mombasa should refund Ruto his money.) ODM members and leaders are here in Kitengela,” he said.

For Orengo, he is waiting for a third time to humiliate Oburu over the party leadership and could be applying similar tactics he and the late Wamalwa Kijana played on Raila over the leadership of Ford-K.

By Billy Mijungu

William Ruto has moved early to calibrate and consolidate his political machinery ahead of 2027. He understands a simple truth that many ignore. Elections are not won on voting day. They are secured long before, in the quiet discipline of preparation, in structures rooted at the grassroots, in networks designed to report, mobilise, fundraise and defend. Power rests on systems. Discipline outperforms excitement. Coordination outlasts outrage.

The Opposition commands numbers and emotion. It channels public frustration, economic pressure and political fatigue. It fills spaces and shapes conversation. But numbers without structure rarely convert into victory. Crowds disperse. Systems endure. Votes must be guarded. Tallies must be verified. Agents must be recruited, trained and retained. Organisation is the invisible shield behind every successful campaign.

Ruto did not start from zero. He refined systems sharpened during the administrations of Uhuru Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki and fused them with networks he built over decades. The result is a layered command that stretches from national leadership to the polling station. It is structured, deliberate and patient.

The only formation with comparable institutional experience since 2007 has been the Orange Democratic Movement. Should that machinery weaken or fragment, the balance tilts further. Beyond it stands the Wiper Democratic Movement–Kenya, leaner and less resourced. The disparity then becomes structural rather than emotional.

The Opposition must confront a hard lesson. Democracy rewards preparation. People do not count votes. Systems do. People do not secure results. Structures do. Passion without planning ends in protest. Planning with precision ends in power.

When competition is treated casually or surrendered prematurely, submission follows. Dominance thrives in the absence of organised resistance. Accountability weakens when contestation fades. Kenya requires competition that is serious, strategic and sustained. That is how leadership remains responsive and governance stays accountable.

There is still time. Time to build ward-level networks. Time to train and deploy polling agents. Time to raise and allocate resources wisely. Time to unify command. Emotional momentum must be transformed into disciplined architecture. Without that shift, the very citizens who demand change may inadvertently reinforce the system they challenge.

Politics is not only about who is loved. It is about who is prepared. In that truth lies the real contest for 2027.