By Anderson Ojwang
Mt Kenya is witnessing dwindling fortunes in the ongoing targeted 5,083,252 new voters drive by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
The once Kenya’s largest vote basket, Mt Kenya is witnessing a declining youth vote while other regions in the country are counting the gains of the youth population bulge.
Both statistics from school enrolment and the IEBC paint a grim picture for the Mt Kenya region except for a few counties in the region.
While Mt Kenya witnesses a declining young population, Nyanza, North Eastern, Western, Rift Valley and Ukambani have witnessed sharp growth.
The Coast region is also enjoying the youth population bulge which will be a major contributor in the 2027 general elections.
Nyanza, Rift Valley, Ukambani and North Eastern are the beneficiaries of the youth population bulge in the targeted drive.
If the IEBC meets the target, the number of registered voters will shoot to a total of 28 million, up from 22.1 million who cast their votes during the 2022 Elections.
From the analysis of IEBC data, Mt Kenya, the once country’s dominant vote basket, could be facing a shift with the declining youth population while other regions are witnessing an upsurge.
The once low-vote area of North Eastern is staking its claim in the national matrix with a targeted 542,853 new voters.
The predominantly vote-rich Central Kenya, which has for successive elections determined the outcome of the presidential elections, is witnessing a sharp decline in new voters.
In the new target, Mt Kenya is expected to realize 599,129, leading North Eastern by only 56,276.
In Mt Kenya, apart from Meru and Kiambu with targets of 156,592 and 183,783 respectively, Murang’a’s target is 94,365, Nyeri 61,365, Embu 54,313, Laikipia 52,687, Kirinyaga 48,691, Tharaka Nithi 38,481.
In Nyanza, the target is 786,921, while in Western the target is 635,421 and Ukambani 381,613. Rift Valley’s target stands at 1,196,920.
The Coast region, predominantly an ODM zone, has also witnessed youth population growth with a target of 411,803 new voters, while Nairobi’s target stands at 310,486.
The expected number of new voters will be a major determinant in the 2027 general election outcome and will redefine major political realignments ahead of the elections.
In 2023, the government directed school-based issuance of national identity cards, a move which is paying off.
A circular from the Principal Secretary, Ministry of Education, State Department for Basic Education, Amb. Prof Julius K. Bitok, wrote, captioned “Facilitation of school-based ID registration exercise second term, 2023”.
“The State Department for Immigration and Citizen Services, through the National Registration Bureau (NRB), intends to undertake a mobile national ID registration drive targeting eligible students in secondary schools during the current (second) school term (May-August 2025).”
Nyanza, Western, and Rift Valley enjoy the majority of students in secondary schools, while lower Eastern counties will also carry a huge chunk of the new voters going by the high student population.
The vote-rich Mt Kenya is witnessing a downward spiral in the number of students in secondary schools, while North Eastern and Coast have maintained low percentages.
This initiative was designed to ensure that Kenyan students who have attained the age of 18 are registered for national identity cards while still in school, enabling them to access tertiary education placement, job opportunities and financial aid such as HELB loans without delay upon completion of secondary education.
“You are, therefore, requested to urgently notify all secondary school principals within your jurisdiction to collaborate with county and deputy county registration officers for the successful implementation of the exercise in their schools. Please, also inform the principals that for the purposes of this exercise, they or their deputies will serve as identification agents for the students in place of National Government Administration Officers (NGAO). Your immediate action in this matter will be appreciated,” wrote Bitok in a memo to all Regional Directors of Education and all County Directors of Education.
In 2023, Kenya had approximately 13.2 million students enrolled in pre-primary, primary, and secondary schools. Specifically, there were 2.9 million in pre-primary, 10.2 million in primary, and 4.1 million in secondary schools.
In 2025, a total of 993,226 sat for KCSE, while in 2024 the number was 962,512 candidates, and in 2023 the number was 899,453, giving a total of 2,855,191 forming the bulk of the new voters targeted by IEBC.
In 2023, Bungoma and Kakamega had the highest number of students enrolled at 203,195 and 199,124 respectively.
Nakuru had 195,393, Kiambu 174,100, Migori 147,033, Machakos 143,550, Homa Bay 143,550, Murang’a 135,093, Meru 134,402, Siaya 130,784, Makueni 130,305, and Nairobi 125,566.
Over 100,000 enrollment
Kisumu 123,499, Kisii 123,449, Kitui 120,489, Kericho 114,816, Nandi 108,830, Trans Nzoia 108,415, Bomet 107,935.
Over 50,000 enrollment
Kilifi 98,696, Busia 88,549, Uasin Gishu 84,969, Nyamira 84,749, Vihiga 83,256, Nyeri 80,536, Narok 79,809, Nyandarua 66,872, Baringo 65,665, Kirinyaga 63,145, Embu 62,930, Elgeyo Marakwet 59,219, Kajiado 59,102, Tharaka Nithi 58,533, Kwale 55,779, West Pokot 50,020.
Below 50,000 enrollment
Laikipia 45,397, Mombasa 43,902, Taita Taveta 33,032, Wajir 28,734, Mandera 27,734, Turkana 27,430, Garissa 23,970, Marsabit 13,531, Samburu 12,823, Tana River 12,009, Isiolo 10,444, and Lamu 1,033.
Comparison to school enrolment
Of the 5,083,252 million targeted new voters, Nairobi leads with 310,486 unregistered persons whom the IEBC is targeting, followed by Kakamega (236,156), Nakuru (221,164) in third position.
Bungoma (216,411), Kiambu (183,783), Kilifi (168,131), Kisii (159,245) and Meru (156,592) lead with unregistered persons, with the numbers exceeding 150,000.
Homa Bay 147,809, Narok 147,768, Migori 146,869, Kitui 138,780, Kisumu 133,740, Machakos 133,692, Siaya 123,142, Mandera 121,037, Trans Nzoia 120,037, Uasin Gishu 118,261, Turkana 117,181, Busia 112,282, Garissa 111,283, Makueni 109,542, Wajir 107,141, Kajiado 106,263, Bomet 105,599, Kwale 102,599, Kericho 101,881, and Nandi 101,442.
With this trend, Mt Kenya’s tyranny of numbers after the 2027 general elections may no longer count, as other regions will continue to enjoy youth population bulge while they suffer the decline.