By Anderson Ojwang

After a miserable flop and failure of his prediction on the UDA presidential candidate William Ruto to lose the battle to Azimio La Umoja candidate, the late Raila Odinga, the COTU Secretary General is back with another declaration.

From an infamous warning slogan “kateni mti” by the toothless Atwoli to Kenya Kwanza presidential candidate Ruto in the 2022 general elections, to eating humble pie, the SG is back again.

This time, Atwoli is breathing fire and has called for Bukhungu III to lock Luhya votes from the opposition for President Ruto in next year’s general election.

Kateni Mti

Ahead of the 2022 presidential election, he warned: “As a responsible trade unionist, I must tell you who is going to be your president. This man who walks everywhere, I told him in 2014 that you will not be president and nobody will elect you. This young man who is lying to you was born in 1966. That year I completed Form 4, and in 1967, I was employed and he was six months old. I cannot leave from where I am to go beg for support for him. I cannot do that. What I want to say is: if you have the pen, write this down and don’t doubt me, there is nothing called UDA. We know where we are coming from and where we are going. The dynamic of 2022 is different from the one today. Those close to William Ruto in Sugoi, kindly kateni miti when the election results will be released, he will commit,” he said.

When Ruto chided Atwoli

Ruto after the elections chided Atwoli, saying: “God is great. After two weeks of my election, I invited Atwoli to my office and jokingly asked him, ‘You said kateni miti.’ It was not God’s will, and I am the one who is on the driving seat.”

Ruto said Atwoli used a Luhya analogy that “when your dad is gone and you find another man leaving your mother’s house, you call that person your father.”

I hold the key to the Luhya community

Atwoli claimed that he holds the key to the Luhya community and no leader from the region can emerge without his blessings.

Atwoli also warned that nobody can pretend to lead the Luhya community without him knowing and blessing.

“I want to tell you that someone cannot say he wants to be the leader of the Luhya community without me knowing. I want to be honest with you,” he said.

Atwoli said Bukhungu III will be a turning point in the Luhya community’s political dispensation.

“I want to warn and tell you there is Bukhungu III coming up in December 26th of 2026. If you want to traverse Western Kenya, you are free to do so, but after 26th, we will lock the region. We will lock it up,” he said.

The SG said President Ruto had initiated several development projects in Luhya land and that they could not afford to support the opposition.

“Look at the various development programmes and the billions of shillings pumped into them by the government. Look at our Kakamega Stadium and the roads. Do not join the group propagating the Tawe movement,” he said.

The Luhya declaration, June 26th

Last Monday, in Trans Nzoia, Governor George Natembeya and co-principal in the Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM, Edwin Sifuna, held a 10-hour meeting which agreed on a homecoming rally for the Nairobi Senator in Bungoma on June 26th.

He said on June 26th 2026, on a Sunday in Bungoma County, will mark a new political dispensation for the Luhya community.

A homecoming for Sifuna and a day Luhya elders and the community will converge to bless and release him to the world to seek the presidency.

Trans Nzoia Governor, after a recent meeting, announced the homecoming and the important ceremony for Sifuna by the community before he goes out to seek the presidency.

He said the Bungoma homecoming rally will be used to unveil Sifuna’s presidential intent and undergo blessing from the community elders and leadership.

“We will be in Bungoma for a homecoming. All leaders will converge in Bungoma on that day. In Bungoma, the elders will bless our son, Sifuna, to go out in search of the presidency,” he said.

Financial might

Atwoli said a presidential bid required financial might and a candidate cannot base his candidature on financial support from a single quarter.

“The presidency requires money, and if you want to be president in this country, it is me who will help you raise even Sh1 billion in a minute. How can you seek the presidency with money that has been donated to you? It is us who have friends, and it is us who can help you become president. Your personal money cannot make one president,” he said.

He claimed some of the Luhya leaders were being sponsored by outsiders to divide the Luhya community and the vote block.

“Some people have been sponsored by some political quarters, and we know them. You cannot come to divide the Luhya community because you have been sent for that mission,” he said.

Emergence of Sifuna

Sifuna’s wave is fast sweeping through Luhya land and causing political panic among the old guards who are threatened by the new political dispensation.

For Atwoli, the barks may be loud but may have the least effect in the changing political terrain in the region.

By Anderson Ojwang

Kenya’s politics of colonial and post-independence is not complete without delving into the contributions of Nyandarua County.

Nyandarua County is a unique one. It is the heart of Kikuyu politics. The home of the rebels and settlers. The spiritual and cultural home to the community shrines. And similarly, during the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) ranking, Nyandarua topped and took several of the candidates to national schools.

It is the home of the Mungiki sect and the heart of Mau Mau liberation during the struggle for independence.

Marginalised

But on the contrary, Nyandarua for decades after independence has been marginalised by successive regimes and has developed a thick skin.

Despite the marginalisation, Nyandarua has not only dictated Mt Kenya’s politics but also the national dispensation.

Nyandarua is the home of freedom fighter, the late JM Kariuki, who was instrumental in the pre-independence and post-independence socio-economic and political dispensation.

The recent death of Ol Kalou MP Njuguna Kiaraho prompted the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to gazette the constituency for a by-election.

The by-election comes at a time when the IEBC has produced a roadmap to the 2027 general election and is the test pad for the Mt Kenya opposition wing led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Contrast and parallels

Interestingly, Ol Kalou is the home of JM Kariuki, a socialist and fiery politician during the administration of the founding president, the late Jomo Kenyatta.

JM’s parents were originally from Nyeri but were displaced in 1928 from their family home in Chinga village.

In the late 1960s and early ’70s, Kariuki’s relationship with Kenyatta became increasingly strained as Kariuki became increasingly vocal in his criticism of Kenyatta’s governmental policies and their results, including high levels of government corruption and widening inequalities.

The government’s attempts to thwart his re-election as Nyandarua North MP in 1972 flopped because of his popularity among ordinary Kenyans.

While Kenyatta praised Kenya’s great progress, JM declared that Kenya “had become a country of 10 millionaires and ten million beggars.”

Interestingly, Nyandarua Senator John Methu and the residents have come up with a new political mantra and movement of “Sh10 versus Sh1 billion” in the July 16th parliamentary by-election.

This was in reference to the alleged remarks by former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, who called the DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru – Ngotho a “chokora” (street kid), prompting residents to raise funds for the purchase of a suit for his swearing-in as MP-elect.

He wrote on his social media platforms: “And 2,823 souls gave 10 shillings each to buy a suit for the swearing-in of the incoming Ol Kalou MP Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru – Ngotho. Moses Kuria called him a chokoraa, and the people have decided to make lemonade out of the lemon.”

He continued: “Last Tuesday, Mugumo villagers agreed to contribute 10 shillings each when they come today, to buy a brand new suit for the swearing-in of the incoming MP Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru – Ngotho after Mr William Samoei Ruto, through his most trusted lieutenant Moses Kuria, called him a chokoraa. Pesa wametoa nyingi.”

For Methu, the Sh10 contributions run deeper than just financial support – it is love and a morale booster ahead of the July 16th by-election.

“The 10 shillings movement really boosts our morale ahead of the 16th July moment of truth. It’s not the money, it’s the love. Ata Mpesa imehang vile mmetum. Siku ingine mtu akiitana chokoraa atajua ata chokora ako na watu wao. Ukiona mama amefunga kumi kwa handkerchief ya kuletea Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru – Ngotho ujue huku mambo ni noma. It’s 10 shillings versus 1 billion,” he wrote.

The goodies

Ol Kalou has witnessed a cocktail of development goodies from the government to the residents, including the return of passenger railway services to the area.

In a recent social media post, Kenya Railways appreciated the overwhelming support for the re-opening of the Gilgil-Nyahururu-Ol Kalou railway line on June 2nd 2026.

“Kenya Railways remains on track in delivering the government’s development agenda by enhancing connectivity, supporting trade and agriculture, and driving socio-economic development across Kenya,” read the post.

Several government officials have been carrying out “goodies” missions, launching development and infrastructure projects across the constituency to bolster the UDA game plan.

Lands Cabinet Secretary Alice Wahome asked the electorate to support the UDA candidate during the development and inspected and commissioned key government projects.

Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries, Members of Parliament and Senators are among those who have flocked to Ol Kalou to drum up support for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina.

Cabinet Ministers and Permanent Secretaries have been thronging the constituency, including Tourism and Wildlife CS Rebecca Miano, Energy Principal Secretary Alex Wachira, and Laikipia East Member of Parliament Mwangi Kiunjuri, to solicit votes for the government side.

Similarly, Central Kenya leaders allied to President Ruto have intensified campaigns for UDA candidate Samuel Muchina, led by Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, who have been crisscrossing the constituency drumming up support for Muchina, who won the UDA nominations and is now flying the party’s flag in the contest.

Waiguru said the ruling party was confident of victory, arguing that the late MP had been a strong supporter of the Kenya Kwanza administration and that continuity in leadership was critical for development.

IEBC dilemma

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) recently warned that it may be forced to postpone or cancel the Ol Kalou by-election slated for this Thursday over widespread cases of voter bribery and violence that have already claimed one life.

At the launch of the 2022 Pre-Election Dispute Resolution Report, IEBC Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon lamented allegations of massive voter bribery and the use of State machinery to influence voters.

The commission threatened to disqualify candidates found culpable of electoral offences, as the rain of cash and violence in the constituency finally landed on its radar.

“We have witnessed voter bribery, campaigns at night, and violence leading to the death of one person,” he stated.

Ethekon raised concerns over what he described as development goodies and handouts being channelled to Ol Kalou through government officials, including Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries.

“We have noted Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries campaigning,” he noted.

DCP vs UDA

DCP wrote on its social media platforms: “No amount of intimidation or bribery shall deter the steadfast resolve of the people of Ol Kalou in their pursuit of electing a leader of substance. We, the people, shall stand firm. The stage is set, and everything is system go! Eyes on the ball. Focus on 16th July 2026. For Ol Kalou by-election, it is done and dusted.”

But UDA also responded: “The momentum is unstoppable as Samuel Muchina Nyagah continued his final campaign engagements with the people of Kaimbaga Ward at Captain Town in Ol Kalou Constituency. With the by-election set for Thursday, 16th July 2026, he reaffirmed his commitment to championing the aspirations of the people, calling on residents to turn out in large numbers and vote for visionary, people-centred leadership that will accelerate development and transform Ol Kalou Constituency. Final submissions at Kanjuiri Centres confirm that the people of Ol Kalou are ready to turn a new page on leadership that listens, acts, and delivers. We are humbled by the continued trust and confidence you have placed in our candidate, Samuel Muchina Nyagah, ahead of the by-election scheduled for Thursday, 16th July 2026.”

By Anderson Ojwang

Immediate former Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Secretary General Edwin Sifuna chose ACK St Stephen Cathedral Kisumu to relay to the party leadership that they were free to take over whatever the late Raila Amolo Odinga had bequeathed to him.

An emotional Sifuna said after the death of a father, battle over inheritance and family properties usually erupts, and told the ODM leadership to feel free to dispossess him of Raila’s bequeaths.

“It is a usual occurrence: when the father dies, people come and disinherit his children of the properties,” he said.

A section of ODM leaders have been demanding that the vehicle Sifuna uses as ODM Secretary General be taken away from him, among other things.

Sifuna said there were certain things Raila had given to him in his accord, and that he was ready to surrender them to ODM leadership.

“There are things Baba, Raila gave me himself in his wisdom, but people have decided to take them all. I am ready because Bishop Charles Onginjo has said God will give more,” he said.

He said God and the people will reward him even if the ODM leadership chooses to take everything Raila had bequeathed to him.

“Everything that they will take that I was given by Baba and the people, the people will give it back to me. I believe that is the truth,” he said.

Unity

Sifuna dismissed any allegations of differences in Linda Mwananchi, saying they will not be separated.

“Governor James Orengo, thank you for the invite, and we have said we must remain united. If you ever believe in things Baba used to believe in, we must all remain. We are not separating. The people of Nyanza, Western, and Coast, let us remain united and walk together,” he said.

He told the residents of Nyanza not to be worried about a possible fallout between the Luo and the Luhya communities.

“Do not be worried about things that have happened that people of Western are bitter with Nyanza. It is not. The internal problem in the party is just individuals bringing issues into the party. As a community, we know you have always stood for justice, and we will continue to walk together,” he said.

Oburu sacks Sifuna

After the demise of Raila, the new party leader Dr Oburu Oginga amplified the scheme to sack Sifuna as Secretary General.

The ODM National Executive Council (NEC) approved the sacking of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as Secretary General and spokesperson with immediate effect.

The move followed a protracted battle between the party leader Dr Oginga’s faction against Sifuna over the pre-election coalition pact with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

NEC appointed Catherine Omanyo, who is one of the Deputy Secretaries General, to act in this position until a substantive holder of the office is elected.

Last week, the Registrar of Political Parties effected the sacking of the Nairobi Senator as ODM Secretary General.

In a letter dated 9th July 2026, signed by J.C. Lorionokou, effecting the removal of Sifuna as Secretary General to have been in line with the Political Parties Act and the ODM constitution, Sifuna’s political train had already left the station.

“Upon the review of the documents submitted by the party and lack of response from Sifuna, we note that the removal of the Secretary General was in line with the Political Parties Act and the ODM constitution. This office has effected the change and updated the party records,” it read in parts.

Ida’s appeal that fell on deaf ears

Mama Ida Odinga recently appealed to the party leadership not to kill the party and asked the party leadership to prioritise dialogue over wrangles to avoid disintegration and to preserve Raila’s legacy.

“It is my wish that we can preserve the party in his honour as a matter of service to our country. I want to appeal to those Baba left in the leadership of the party to reflect deeply and sincerely on his dreams for the party and for our country,” she said.

Ida challenged the current leaders in the party to give dialogue a chance and follow Raila’s footsteps in resolving disputes in the party.

“Let us support the problems of the party by always asking ourselves, what would Baba do under these circumstances? I guess your guess is as good as mine. I am sure Baba would tell us, ‘Let us sit down and talk.’ And I am sure that is my wish: to sit down and talk our differences,” she said.

Earlier, Migori Senator Eddy Oketch had petitioned the party organs to take disciplinary action against Sifuna over his stand on the broad-based alliance.

The Luhya declaration, June 26th

The June 26th 2026, on a Sunday in Bungoma County, will mark a new political dispensation for the Luhya community.

A homecoming for Sifuna and a day Luhya elders and the community will converge to bless and release him to the world to seek the presidency.

Trans Nzoia Governor, after a recent meeting, announced the homecoming and the important ceremony for Sifuna by the community before he goes out to seek the presidency.

He said the Bungoma homecoming rally will be used to unveil Sifuna’s presidential intent and undergo blessing from the community elders and leadership.

“We will be in Bungoma for a homecoming. All leaders will converge in Bungoma on that day. In Bungoma, the elders will bless our son, Sifuna, to go out in search of the presidency,” he said.

By Anderson Ojwang

Wamunyoro may be streaming and teeming with delegations one after another, but the self-declared leader of Mt Kenya, Rigathi Gachagua, is not sitting upright.

Three months ago, Gachagua was the self-declared leader of the opposition and dictated terms to his colleagues Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, Fred Matiang’i, JB Muturi, Martha Karua, among others.

Gachagua became the focal point, and opposition politics revolved around him.

He became the undisputed opposition spokesperson and leader, with most opposition press conferences bearing the emblem of his DCP party.

He was another form of the late Raila Odinga in the making and the determinant of the flow of campaigns and strategies in the opposition.

Wamunyoro became similar to Raila’s Opoda, former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Ichaweri, and President William Ruto’s Sugoi.

Wamunyoro became a reference in Kenyan politics, and visitors and delegates thronged it in droves.

Reality check

Gachagua woke up to a harsh reality check over the emergence of the ODM faction Linda Mwananchi.

The emergence and vibrancy of the group is not only threatening the status quo but also eating into Gachagua’s expected vote block.

The recent successful Linda Mwananchi rally in Thika was a wake-up call to Gachagua that Mt Kenya votes are not a preserve for DCP alone but for other political formations as well.

Gachagua, having muzzled Uhuru’s Jubilee Party, DP, and others in the region, was assured of total control of Mt Kenya into the future.

This explains Friday’s outburst during the outfit’s tour of Nyandarua County.

The panic outburst

Gachagua told Kangata not to take his Linda Mwananchi group to campaign for the DCP candidate in the Ol Kalou by-election.

“We don’t want confusion in Ol Kalou. The campaign has gone on for three months. Irungu Kangata has never been to Ol Kalou. He doesn’t understand the issues and the narratives. He cannot come and bring Linda Mwananchi to campaign on the last day without knowing what the issues are and how the campaigns are being done,” he said.

He said the campaigns have been going on for two months, led by Senator John Methu and others, and wondered about Linda Mwananchi’s value to the team.

“You have not even talked to John Methu; how do you say you are coming to campaign for a candidate you don’t know and have never seen? You don’t know the area, and you don’t know what is happening,” he said.

Gachagua opted to keep off the campaigns and even advised his colleagues to refrain from venturing to campaign for the candidate.

“For DCP, we have a local campaign strategy. Even the principals of the alternative government, I have requested to let the people of Ol Kalou do their own campaign. It is a local campaign with local issues, and we would like it to remain that. That is what I have told the Senator of Murang’a, Joe Nyutu, to tell Irungu Kangata not to bring his jokes to Ol Kalou. Let him leave the people of Ol Kalou to do their own campaign and deal with their issues the way they know how. I am on standby myself because I have not been in Ol Kalou because the campaign is going on well. But if the team leader, John Methu, requests my presence in Ol Kalou, I will be available. That request has not come. I am happy with what is going on,” he said.

Kangata’s equation

Kangata is emerging as one of the future leaders of Mt Kenya, and his rise is challenging Gachagua’s status quo. The decision by Kangata to join Linda Mwananchi irritated Gachagua most, who had anticipated that the Murang’a Governor would join his fold.

“Linda will only go to Nyahururu Town. We should not allow politics to divide us. Since I started politics, I have been forced by political circumstances to hide my values and principles for political expediency,” he said.

The Governor said this election has provided him with an opportunity to join a team of his value and wish, representative of Kenyans.

“I have been forced aside, not necessarily because I believe it, but because I want to win an election. This is the only time I am doing politics when I am very happy because in my group, I see all tribes. We are in one group. I am so happy because we are fighting for a cause and not a tribe,” he said.

Muturi deflates

Democratic Party leader JB Muturi messed up Gachagua’s greatest moment that he had envisaged after his 45 days of conclave.

In Gachagua’s game plan, he would have declared his support for the preferred presidential candidate, but Muturi let the cat out of the bag and deflated his move.

Muturi declared his support for Kalonzo Musyoka to be the opposition presidential candidate.

“I want to say this in Kamulu, before the Apostle Musili and the entire clergy: if it is not me, I am never worried. We must stop being cowards and tell Kenyans our presidential candidate. If it is not me, then it is Dr Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka as the flag bearer,” he declared.

Muturi said it was time for the united opposition to name the presidential candidate and stop acting under fear.

“We don’t have a presidential candidate because we fear that when we name the person, we don’t know what William Ruto will do to him. What has Ruto not said about Dr Fred Matiang’i? He said he sleeps, and since he came here, I have not seen him sleep. He has said everything about all of us. He even said I am incompetent,” he said.

He said it was time the opposition stopped the notion and mentality that they were playing the card of the opposition candidate close to their chest.

Gachagua has been leaning towards Kalonzo and has been traversing Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern together on several political trips.

He recently said Mt Kenya will have to sacrifice the presidential and Deputy President seats in the 2027 general elections to ensure President Ruto is not re-elected.

Orengo-Matiang’i-Karua dalliance

Currently, Siaya Governor James Orengo has developed a closer alliance with Matiang’i and Karua, and the trio last week were in Ahero, Nyando Constituency, for a church service.

Orengo and Matiang’i have engaged in a series of meetings, and this could be creating anxiety and threat to Gachagua.

Gachagua may find himself boxed into a corner by his brand of politics, with other opposition leaders likely to view him as an impediment to unity.

By Anderson Ojwang

For decades, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has remained glued in a spot in an endless and painful pursuit of the elusive presidency, while its members it disciplined and expelled continue to flourish at the national platform.

The sacking of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as Secretary General has come at the best time and as a blessing in disguise to the Linda Mwananchi brigade.

For most party members, ODM disciplinary measures have become a path to political success, while for the party, it is an eyesore that has left it still stuck in an endless charade of presidential pursuit.

One of the founders of ODM, President William Ruto, rightly observed that the moment one was served with the party’s disciplinary letter, it was a testimony that the member was ripe for a new political escapade.

“If you know how to go forward and to be successful in politics, it is to get an ODM disciplinary letter,” Ruto said.

The ODM catch

The statement aptly captures ODM’s current predicament in its fight with the immediate former Secretary General and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.

The Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga-led ODM has for the last one year been engaged in a dogfight with Sifuna over his opposition to the broad-based government and support for Ruto’s second term.

Oburu earlier in the year sacked Sifuna and formed the Linda Ground faction to rival Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi.

Linda Ground failed to excite a political moment and was recently folded, with the team reverting to identifying themselves as ODM.

Linda Mwananchi has turned into a political phenomenon in the country and already has two presidential aspirants in Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo.

ODM is fast being relegated to a minnow in the 2027 general elections and possibly a Luo party, shedding off the national tag.

Promotion

President Ruto, while advising ODM rebels including Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo, Mark Nyamita, among others, over the ODM-instituted disciplinary measures, told them not to panic but to know they were on the right political path.

“I was the deputy party leader of ODM; I too was served with the letter. The moment you are served with the disciplinary letter by ODM, that is the time you know your growth is on course. I became the Deputy President and now President,” he said.

And now ODM has created another presidential contender in Sifuna after a letter dated 9th July 2026, signed by J.C. Lorionokou, effected the removal of Sifuna as Secretary General, saying the party action was in line with the Political Parties Act and the ODM constitution – while Sifuna’s political train had already left the station.

“Upon the review of the documents submitted by the party and lack of response from Sifuna, we note that the removal of the Secretary General was in line with the Political Parties Act and the ODM constitution. This office has effected the change and updated the party records,” it read in parts.

Bombshell

The sacking not only left ODM in tatters but opened a new political dispensation in the country.

On Sunday, July 26th, Sifuna will have a homecoming rally at the historic Posta Ground in Bungoma, where the community will bless him to seek the presidency. A new chapter and a new vehicle.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, on Monday after a 10-hour meeting, announced the programme for the event where the elders and other leaders will bless and release Sifuna to run for the presidency.

He said the Bungoma homecoming rally will be used to unveil Sifuna’s presidential intent and undergo blessing from the community elders and leadership.

“We will be in Bungoma for a homecoming. All leaders will converge in Bungoma on that day. In Bungoma, the elders will bless our son, Sifuna, to go out in search of the presidency,” he said.

Natembeya said it was incumbent upon the Luhya community to discuss the future of the community and not relegate it to outsiders.

“We have started to plan our politics, and today we have agreed to start the journey with our people. We will have a meeting in Trans Nzoia on 25th July and a homecoming the next day on 26th in Bungoma,” he said.

In a move aimed at locking the Luhya votes into one basket, Natembeya said the community leaders will then embark on campaigns in all 38 constituencies to rally support for Sifuna.

“We will have meetings in every constituency in the Luhya community, while Sifuna will be traversing the country. We will traverse 38 constituencies in Western Kenya. Our MPs are in Ruto’s camp, so we declare war on them. We will be in one political party in next year’s election,” he said.

Instances

President Ruto said the ODM disciplinary action marked his political turnaround.

“If you have not received any disciplinary letter from ODM, then you are still playing below the cadre. I was taken to court by ODM trying to chase me away. We stayed in court for five years. It ended. If you know how to go forward and to be successful in politics, it is to get an ODM disciplinary letter,” he said.

MP Caroli Omondi, who was served with an ODM disciplinary letter, took ODM to court, won the elections, and is yet to be paid by the party over damages. He is currently flying high in the emerging political moment in the country.

The sacking of Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi as Deputy Party Leader of ODM has propelled him as the favourite gubernatorial candidate for Vihiga.

By James Okoth

In the high-stakes chessboard of Kisumu politics, few questions are generating as much debate as the succession of Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o. As the veteran politician approaches the twilight of his gubernatorial tenure, attention has increasingly turned to one man who has occupied the county’s second-highest office for years: Deputy Governor Dr Mathew Owili.

The argument being advanced by his supporters is simple but politically powerful: Owili is not merely an aspirant seeking power; he is the political heir who has been positioned inside the Nyong’o administration as the natural successor.

This gives him a head start that many of his competitors must fight hard to overcome.

The “chosen successor” narrative

In politics, perception often becomes reality. The strongest currency a candidate can possess is not only popularity but the perception of inevitability.

For years, Dr Owili has served as Nyong’o’s deputy, sitting at the centre of county administration, understanding government systems, interacting with senior officials, and becoming familiar with the machinery of governance.

Unlike opponents who must introduce themselves as alternatives, Owili enters the race selling continuity: a promise that the Nyong’o development agenda will not be abandoned but strengthened.

This is the political advantage of being the incumbent deputy governor. He is not presenting himself as a newcomer asking voters for trust; he is presenting himself as a custodian who has already been tested within government.

Governor Nyong’o publicly worked alongside Dr Owili throughout his first and second terms, with Owili accompanying him during key county engagements and government functions.

Nyong’o’s political shadow remains a powerful asset

Prof. Nyong’o is not just a governor leaving office. He is a national political figure with decades of experience, networks and influence within ODM and Nyanza politics.

A successor carrying his endorsement would inherit more than a name. He would inherit a political ecosystem built around party structures, relationships and government experience.

This is why Owili’s supporters argue that he represents stability at a time when Kisumu voters may be looking for continuity rather than disruption.

The deputy governor has previously maintained that his working relationship with Nyong’o remained strong and that their partnership delivered on their shared mandate.

The advantage of occupying the government space

One of Owili’s biggest strengths is visibility.

Politics rewards familiarity. A candidate who has spent years attending official functions, engaging communities, appearing in government programmes, and being associated with development projects begins the race with a level of recognition that new entrants must spend enormous resources building.

Every road project, health investment, education programme, or county initiative associated with the Nyong’o administration becomes part of the succession conversation.

His competitors must convince voters why they should replace a system they have already experienced. Owili only needs to convince them why he should be trusted to continue and improve it.

The Nyakach factor and regional arithmetic

Kisumu politics has always been influenced by community balancing and regional calculations.

Owili’s background in Nyakach gives him a strong base in one of the county’s influential political zones. His supporters have framed the contest as an opportunity for Nyakach to produce the next governor, a narrative he himself has promoted during political engagements.

However, this advantage also comes with a challenge: Nyakach has produced several influential political figures, meaning Owili must consolidate rather than assume support from the region.

Why competitors face a harder path

Those challenging Owili must overcome three major obstacles.

First, they must break the perception that the race has already been decided within the Nyong’o succession plan.

Second, they must build countywide networks strong enough to compete with someone who has been part of the county government structure for almost a decade.

Third, they must explain why voters should abandon continuity for a different political direction.

That does not make the contest impossible. Kisumu politics has repeatedly demonstrated that party loyalty, personalities, grassroots mobilisation, and public sentiment can dramatically reshape political fortunes.

The biggest battle: inheritance versus reinvention

The 2027 Kisumu gubernatorial contest is likely to become a battle between two political ideas.

On one side is inheritance: the argument that Owili represents the continuation of the Nyong’o era with a new face.

On the other side is reinvention: the argument that Kisumu needs a fresh political chapter beyond the current administration.

Owili’s biggest weapon is that he does not have to convince voters that he understands government. He has been inside government.

His competitors’ strongest argument will be whether understanding the Nyong’o administration is enough reason to lead the next one.

Ultimately, the question before Kisumu voters will not only be who can win the governor’s seat, but who they believe should carry the county’s next chapter.

For now, Dr Mathew Owili begins the race with perhaps the most valuable political asset of all: the perception that he is not chasing succession – he is positioned for it.