By James Okoth

The political theatre that unfolded in Gilgil today may have seemed like a solemn funeral, but in truth, it was a rehearsal for a revolution and its lead actor, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, knows the script by heart.

Standing before mourners at the burial of Mama Terry Kariuki, widow of the slain patriot JM Kariuki, Gachagua shed the skin of a government insider. Gone was the man who once preached about “shares in government” and “rewarding loyal shareholders.” In his place stood a politician reborn, one who thundered that his camp was “no longer interested in government positions” and that their “only agenda now is to dethrone Ruto.”

That shift wasn’t mere semantics but an open declaration of political war, one that could redefine Kenya’s path to 2027.

Just three years ago, Gachagua’s political gospel was built on numbers and entitlement. He claimed Mt. Kenya delivered the votes and therefore deserved 50 percent of the government. He spoke of “shareholding” as if Kenya were a private company, with regions, not citizens, owning equity in power.

It was populist, provocative and effective. The message resonated with a region that felt used, forgotten and desperate for political visibility after the Uhuru, Raila handshake years. To many, Gachagua was the custodian of Mt. Kenya’s political redemption.

However, that bargain has soured. Cabinet slots, parastatal appointments and state tenders, the real spoils of power, did not flow as promised. Instead, Gachagua found himself isolated in a palace he helped build. His allies were sidelined. His authority clipped. His political oxygen slowly withdrawn by a calculating President who knows the art of neutralizing potential threats.

The Gilgil funeral gave him the perfect stage, a moment rich in historical symbolism. JM Kariuki’s name is synonymous with betrayal by the state and the cry of ordinary Kenyans against the arrogance of power. Gachagua wrapped himself in that legacy like a revolutionary mantle.

His words were deliberate, his tone surgical.

“We are not interested in positions. Our only interest is to dethrone those who have betrayed the trust of the people.” Gachachua roared, his tone, assuring.

It was a dagger aimed straight at the heart of State House.

By invoking JM Kariuki’s memory, Gachagua wasn’t just mourning, he was mobilizing. He painted Ruto’s administration as the new oligarchy, a regime that, in his telling, promised inclusion but delivered exclusion, that pledged equity but practiced elitism.

In doing so, Gachagua repositioned himself as the new voice of rebellion, a populist warrior reclaiming power for “the betrayed.”

This shift has thrown the ruling coalition into chaos. Kenya Kwanza, once a tightly packed electoral machine, now looks like a collapsing tent. Ruto’s strategists, once confident of a seamless re-election, must now contend with a man who understands the government from the inside and knows exactly where its weak points lie.

Gachagua’s move also scrambles Mt. Kenya’s political arithmetic. By renouncing “positions” and framing his crusade as a moral one, a fight for dignity, not deals, he is appealing to a frustrated base that feels economically bruised and politically deceived.

He is no longer asking for half the loaf. He’s trying to bake a new one, with himself at the helm.

For President Ruto, Gachagua’s rebellion is not a mere nuisance. It is a live grenade in his own backyard. The Rift Valley, Mt. Kenya alliance that propelled him to State House was built on delicate trust. The moment one partner turns against the other, the arithmetic of 2027 changes dramatically and therein lies Ruto’s nightmare – he may have created his own opposition.

If Gachagua sustains this trajectory, Kenya is staring at a new realignment, one not defined by party manifestos but by revenge, betrayal and survival.
He has moved from demanding a share of power to plotting a change of power. That evolution is seismic. It threatens to collapse Kenya Kwanza from within and redraw the country’s political geography.

Whether Gachagua’s rebellion blossoms into a mass movement or fizzles under pressure will depend on how he frames his next act. Does he run as a reformist, or as a regional avenger? Does he build bridges across the Rift, or dig trenches in Nyeri?

Either way, Kenya’s political voltage has just been turned up.

By Anderson Ojwang

President William Ruto finds himself in a catch-22 situation after his Deputy, Prof. Kithure Kindiki, and Internal Security Permanent Secretary, Dr. Raymond Omollo, recently declared support for ODM candidate for Kasipul Constituency, Boyd Were.

The by-election is a delicate balancing act for Ruto — to either go full throttle and support the ODM candidate and disenfranchise the vote bloc, or sit back, watch, and allow nature to take its course.

At an empowerment funds drive at Sikri in Kasipul, Kindiki and Omollo rallied the electorate to support Boyd as a Broad-Based candidate.

Omollo wrote on his X handle: “Together with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, we joined the people and regional leadership of Homa Bay County, led by Governor Gladys Wanga, for a resource mobilization and women empowerment drive in Kasipul Constituency.

The meeting also underscored the spirit of the Broad-Based government, as leaders expressed unity of purpose while rallying behind the ODM candidate, Boyd Were, within a framework of inclusivity and national cohesion.”

The move by the Deputy President and Omollo to support the ODM candidate threw the UDA leadership and fraternity under the bus and left them orphaned in the by-election.

The grumpy UDA activist Odoyo Owidi and his team, who had been leading an onslaught on Wanga and Boyd, were left stranded by the unfolding political scenario. They are yet to visit Kasipul to campaign.

Odoyo and the late MP, the slain Charles Ongondo Were, the father of Boyd, the ODM candidate, never saw eye to eye, and the decision by the top government leadership to support Boyd has left them punctured and headless.

Odoyo and Ongondo were both ODM aspirants for Kasipul in the 2022 general elections, but the party issued a direct ticket to Ongondo, which didn’t amuse Odoyo.

President Ruto has made Homa Bay County his second home and brought various development projects to the county. Homa Bay was the bedroom of the ODM leader, the late Raila Odinga.

With Raila’s demise, Ruto hopes to inherit the vote bloc of Homa Bay, but now he has to contend with the emerging political scenario on the ground.

The greater Rachuonyo, which accounts for 40 percent of the votes, is rebelling against Governor Wanga and has rallied behind Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga.

Magwanga was forced into a political marriage with Wanga in the 2022 gubernatorial election by Raila, and the two leaders have since fallen out and are now irreconcilable.

Magwanga declined Wanga’s overtures to support Boyd ahead of the ODM primaries and instead advocated for a free and fair nomination.

In the controversial nomination, he supported Kepha Newton Ogada against Wanga’s Boyd, in which the latter won and the former had his vehicles and hospital destroyed by ODM goons.

Ogada recently shared a cryptic photo of independent candidate Philip Aroko which read, “This time it will not be a walk in the park.”

Magwanga enjoys huge support in Homa Bay County, and the decision by the Broad-Based government to ignore his political constituency in the hope that Wanga, the ODM national chairperson, will deliver the county votes may backfire in the 2027 general elections.

Interestingly, Hesborn Omollo, elder brother to the PS, who had engaged in political activities in Homa Bay, was prevailed upon.

Omollo, in a statement on his Facebook page, said his community service engagement should not be misconstrued as an attempt to rally support for a gubernatorial contest.

Omollo’s community engagement had brought disquiet in the ODM wing, with Governor Gladys Wanga and her supporters taking issue with his activities.

Within the last two years, Omollo had crisscrossed the county engaging in fund drives and other activities that created panic among other political players in the county.

“Our journey of engagement has always been rooted in improving the lives of our people. Public service and representation have been at the core of my commitment, dating back to 2007 when I stepped forward to contest for the parliamentary seat of Karachuonyo. Community engagement is not just a duty—it is part of my identity.

Recently, my active involvement in community activities has led to speculation that I intend to vie for the position of Governor. Unfortunately, this has sparked unnecessary tension and unfounded rumors that do not serve our collective progress as a people.

I wish to categorically state that I am not pursuing the gubernatorial seat for Homa Bay County, nor have I stated as such before. This is a time for service delivery, not political competition,” he wrote.

Omollo and Were had differences, with each accusing the other, and often engaged in altercations.

Cabinet Secretary for Treasury and Economic Planning did not attend the empowerment program in Sikri and is yet to campaign for the ODM candidate in Kasipul.

While his counterpart, Opiyo Wandayi, has been campaigning in Ugunja for Moses Okoth to capture the seat, Mbadi has not been seen in Kasipul.

For Ugunja, it may be an easy ride for the Broad-Based candidate, but Kasipul is proving to be a hard nut to crack, as it is viewed as a testing ground for the Wanga–Magwanga 2027 duel.

Ahead of the nomination, Siaya Senator Dr. Oburu Odinga and his sister Wenwa Odinga were said to have supported Ogada against Wanga’s Boyd.

The race is turning out to be a two-horse race between Boyd and Aroko, while other candidates are also showing remarkable command of voters. They include Rateng Kotiende, Robert Riaga, and Collins Okeyo.

Kasipul is a testing ground for President Ruto in his pursuit of Homa Bay votes in the 2027 elections.

By Anderson Ojwang

Eyes are on the Malava Constituency by-election, the curtain raiser for the 2027 presidential election — the fierce race and battle for the 2,217,948 votes.

The curtain raiser pits President William Ruto of the Broad-Based Government against the United Opposition of Kalonzo Musyoka, Rigathi Gachagua, George Natembeya, Dr. Fred Matiangi, among others in the outfit.

Equally, it is billed as the test ground for the Luhya supremacy battle between the Natembeya-led team and the Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker of the National Assembly Moses Wetangula team. Who will call the shots in Luhya land in the 2027 elections?

Malava Constituency offers fodder for the battle for the 2,217,948 Luhya votes, which in successive presidential elections, the majority have voted for the ODM presidential candidate, the late Raila Amolo Odinga.

Interestingly, the immediate former MP, Moses Malulu Injendi, was elected on the Amani Congress Party of Mudavadi, which he later dissolved to join President Ruto’s UDA.

The United Opposition candidate, Seth Panyako of DAP-K, starts as a favorite, having lost the 2022 election to Injendi by only 2,662 votes. Injendi got 22,891 votes to his 20,138.

The exit of Raila from the scene has leveled the playing ground for Ruto against the United Opposition, with the president hoping to build on the 386,456 votes he received in the 2022 presidential elections.

In the last general election, it was only in Bungoma County, the backyard of the Speaker of the National Assembly, Moses Wetangula, where Ruto defeated Raila in the entire Western Kenya. In Bungoma County, Ruto got 255,906 against Raila’s 145,280.

In Vihiga County, the home turf of his Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Ruto managed 67,633 against Raila’s 114,714 votes.

In Kakamega and Busia counties, Ruto secured 141,186 and 48,801 respectively, against Raila’s strong command of 357,187 and 236,042 respectively.

With only 17 days to the by-election, the race is getting murkier, with major realignments, compromises, and betrayals likely to be witnessed.

Yesterday, DAP-K deputy party leader and also Deputy Governor for Kakamega County, Ayub Savula, crossed over and declared his support for UDA candidate David Ndakwa.

The Eugene Wamalwa-led DAP-K party is presenting unionist Seth Panyako in a two-horse race.

Before Savula endorsed the UDA candidate, the UDA Disciplinary Committee had issued summons to Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale to explain why disciplinary action should not be taken against him for alleged misconduct and disloyalty.

In a letter signed by the Disciplinary Committee Chairman, Mr. Charles Njenga accused Khalwale of supporting a candidate of a rival party in the by-election.

“Your open support for a rival candidate clearly demonstrates that you are supporting a position against your own party’s interest and acting outside the expected conduct of a UDA member,” read the letter in part.

UDA has now successfully avenged Khalwale’s move by capturing Savula, DAP-K deputy party leader — a game of chess.
Savula said, “Savula ni kupiga hesabu (Savula does calculations). When you see some walking here, the likes of Natembeya, Cleophas Malala, Bonny Khalwale, wanapiga hesabu kwenda nyumbani (their calculations will take them home).

Here in Malava, you supported Malala, he got into the government, why did he disappear to the opposition?
Khalwale contested for governor seat and lost and went back to senatorial. Will you support one term while you have never been in the opposition?”

In a move that was expected to galvanize the opposition vote, Gachagua-led DCP party had withdrawn their candidate, Mr. Edgar Busiega, in support of Panyako, in what they termed a United Opposition agenda to deliver the seat.

Malala said the United Opposition struck a consensus to field one candidate against the UDA candidate in the November by-elections.

Malala said it was important for the opposition to head to the November polls united if they are to clinch the seat.
Malala said: “Na viongozi wetu wote wamekubaliana kwamba hatuwezi kuwa tunajiita United Opposition na kwa kiti ndogo kama ya ubunge, tunapigana wenyewe kwa wenyewe. Tumefanya scientific research, tukapata kwamba ndugu yetu Panyako ako juu kidogo (Our leaders have agreed that we cannot call ourselves United Opposition if we fight over a parliamentary seat. We conducted scientific research that revealed Panyako was leading).”

“By the time I have conceded, it is after I have assessed his abilities and indeed established that I am leaving Malava in safer hands,” said Busiega.

George Natembeya called for unity to deliver victory for Seth Panyako.
“Together, we stand united in our shared vision of a prosperous and empowered region, one conversation, one rally, and one collective voice at a time,” Natembeya said.

Khalwale has been crisscrossing the constituency seeking votes for Panyako and hailed the move by the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) to withdraw their candidate from the Malava by-election in favor of DAP-K.

Khalwale described the move by Busiega and his party as standing on the right side of history by joining Panyako’s team, which, according to their internal opinion polls, shows Panyako as the frontrunner among other candidates.

“Congratulations to Team Edgar Busiega for joining the big dream and standing on the right side of history by so graciously stepping down unconditionally for Seth Panyako. The Malava by-election is coming around just fine,” Khalwale said.

Mudavadi, in a bid to avoid being drowned, has expanded his political strategy by enlisting the support of religious leaders and professionals.
Mudavadi, who has been tasked to spearhead the UDA campaigns, has a date with destiny. All eyes are on Mudavadi on whether he can successfully anchor Ruto’s boat to safe landing in Luhya land and deliver the over 2 million votes.
The Malava by-election is the launching pad for the Luhya vote bloc, and it is a must-win for either political divide. For Mudavadi and Natembeya, it is a date with destiny.