By Anderson Ojwang

The death of former ODM leader Raila Amolo Odinga left a power vacuum in the party and provided an opportunity for mysterious hands to call shots at the second largest party in the country.

Similarly, allegations of betrayal of Raila in death by a section of MPs now championing President William Ruto’s two term campaigns after they failed to seek Raila’s permission at the party’s last meeting before his death.

Even before the body of Raila arrived in the country from India, where he died while seeking medical care, the mysterious hand had staged a coup in the ODM leadership structure.

Even the beneficiary of the coup, Dr Oburu Odinga, was not aware of the urgently engineered changes in the party leadership structure.

The engineered leadership coup locked out Kisumu Governor Prof Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o, who, by the time of Raila’s death, had not handed over the instrument of power to the deceased and should have continued to act and steer the transition of the party.

Oburu told reporters, “When we were receiving the body of Raila at the airport and the party had just met at 6.00 a.m. in the morning, the NEC and somebody just came and whispered to me, when I was still in shock, that do you know what the NEC has done? You have been appointed as the interim party leader.

I was so shocked. How did they appoint me at this time, when I am still in this state? Then they told me to think about it. They have nominated you to be the one. I feel I am the most sober in the circumstances and I am trying to sober myself. In terms of experience, which other people matches mine?”he said.

ODM Deputy party leader and Mombasa Governor Abdulsmawad Sheriff Nassir read the press statement after the National Executive Council (NEC) meeting.

“We believe in unity of purpose and a stronger democratic party and a party that must live on in many years to come. With this regard the NEC has designated the senator of Siaya County Dr Oburu Odinga to be the acting party leader until the time top party organs will meet and elect a substantive party leader to fit the big shoes that have been left by our party leader,” he read.

From the above, several questions have emerged on who engineered the changes in ODM at 6.00 a.m. before Raila’s body landed in Kenya by 9.00 a.m. aboard a Kenya Airways plane and why.

Why was Nyong’o, who had previously acted on the seat and had not handed over the instrument of power to Raila, ignored in the new power arrangement?

Suba South MP Caroli Omondi gave an insight of what could be happening in the party and the emergence of a mysterious hand pulling shots in the party.

“There was a very quick transition even before Baba’s body arrived. When Mzee Oburu announced that he had accepted to be the party leader, he said he did not even know that there was a process to make him party leader.

What that implies is that that call came from somewhere else. And that worries me a lot. This is because, it therefore seems that ODM is getting directions and controls from somewhere else,”he said.

Caroli said the party must not turn it back to former allies, terming that as betrayal, and that there was need for engagement.

“We cannot just wake up and turn our back on the entire Western Kenya that has stood with us on the four election circles. Eastern three election circles, Coast, Masai, Turkana, Kisii four election circles. How do we just walk away? Baba had 7 million votes in the last general elections. Those 7 million votes, I think 24 percent were Luos, so where are 76 percent? There is a big constituency of Baba that we need to engage with,” he said.

Caroli said Raila only allowed Cabinet Secretary for Treasury John Mbadi and his Energy counterpart Opiyo Wandayi to champion Ruto two term campaigns while the MPs were restrained, save for Alego MP Sam Atandi, who had asked for exemptions.

“Raila told us not to say two term. And of any MP who wants to contradict that, let them try and we will tell them where they were told.

Only Alego MP Sam Atandi raised his hands as the chairman and member of the Budget Committee and asked Raila to allow him sometimes to say two term. Baba’s instructions were that only Mbadi and Wandayi should say two term, the rest were a no,”he said.

Caroli said there was need for a structured engagement with UDA ahead of the 2027 general elections.

“We cannot just move like crowds and cheering like. We must sit down and look at how our engagement is going to be with UDA.

Since UDA came to power, three fundamental things have happened, one Genz revolution, two was the rebellion of Mt Kenya and three the sad demise of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

All these things have to be factored in as you engage with them going forward,” he said.

Party national chairperson Gladys Wanga has defended the broad-based arrangement, saying the party was not apologetic of the party being in the broad-based government and that they have seen results of being in the broad-based government.

But the Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said the ODM members have not resolved to support any candidate for the 2027 presidential election.

“Raila told us that ODM was capable of producing a presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections. Baba asked us to ask you, who told you,” he said.

By Sandra Blessings

The battle for the 130,148 votes in Kisumu Central constituency has begun in earnest, with various aspirants rolling up their sleeves for the contest.

This time, Kisumu Central constituency contest has attracted youthful aspirants, with Edward Onyango, popularly known as Bob CEO, leading the pack.

Bob CEO, a respected Kisumu-based businessman and philanthropist, is unsettling the political order in the city and emerging as one of the top contenders.

The soft-spoken and humble businessman is viewed as a potential Member of Parliament for the city, engaging in various development projects, and enjoys the family brand that has become synonymous with the lakeside city.

Onyango enjoys the brand of his grandmother, the first Kisumu woman mayor and the first woman Member of Parliament, the late Mama Grace Onyango.

Mama Grace was not only a woman of many firsts, but also became the first woman Deputy Speaker and was respected for her honesty, truthfulness, support to the needy and vulnerable members of society, and her non-controversial nature.

Mama Grace was admired for her leadership, which was people-driven and transformative, and when she retired from politics, she settled to run family businesses and enjoy family time.

Her grandson, Bob CEO, has inherited the character and virtues of his grandmother and has been steadfast in helping orphans, the needy and the vulnerable by supporting them through school fees payments and the provision of basic needs.

“It is a calling for me to share and support the needy and orphans by supporting their education. In education, you are building a successful community, and that is my ideology. This is one of the reasons why I am persuaded to be the next MP, to expand this noble initiative,” he said.

Bob CEO also enjoys the brand of the Kisumu populous eating joint, Akwacha, known for its mouth-watering delicacies and as the city’s home of food.

Bob CEO has grown the franchise into one of the leading hospitality brands in the country, with branches in Nairobi and Siaya County.

His business acumen and strategic investment knowledge would be ideal for the city, which is on an expansion trend, helping to blend and provide the much-needed leadership in transforming the lakeside town.

**“I have a vast wealth of knowledge and, with engagement with the governor of the day, I am convinced we can take the city to the next level. I am tested and proven in my management and leadership skills.

Running the hospitality industry is very challenging, and having people trust your brand for decades is a show of honour and confidence in your management.

That is why I am asking the 130,148 electorate of the city to show me that confidence and trust at the 2027 ballot. I am prepared to be the change they want,”** he said.

Bob CEO has presided over and sponsored several medical camps in the constituency and is committed to talent development by supporting sports activities in the city.

He has been instrumental in agitating for the rights of the vulnerable and has been at the forefront in opposing the move to relocate the Jua Kali sector from their business points.

“I have presided over several empowerment programmes in the constituency and donated to various start-up businesses to jump-start them, and I am happy that the majority are doing well. I constantly mentor them, and that is my happiness,” he said.

Bob CEO enjoys wide support from the youth, who identify with him as one of their own and see him as a truthful and honest leader whose background is well known and respected.

The business community also see him as one of their own who will articulate their agenda. Equally, he enjoys the support of women, Jua Kali artisans and men, who believe he can offer the kind of leadership his grandmother, Grace Onyango, offered the city.

The current MP, Dr Joshua Oron, has switched his attention to the Kisumu gubernatorial race, leaving the seat open for grabs.

Bob CEO is not leaving anything to chance in his quest to be the next Member of Parliament for Kisumu Central and has embarked on elaborate campaign strategies to win the seat.

By Anderson Ojwang

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) may have won the just-concluded three parliamentary by-elections in its strongholds of Nyanza and the Coastal region, but the party could be walking into a slumber slide with emerging worrying statistics and a potent growing rebellion.

The statistics in the Ugunja and Kasipul by-election victories are so telling and worrying for the party ahead of the 2027 general elections that they cast aspersions on ODM’s future.

Similarly, the loss of Kariobangi North ward by-election to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s party DCP, and the failure to field candidates in Kakamega and Nyamira counties in the just-concluded by-elections—regions that were the late Raila Odinga’s strongholds—is baffling.

Low voter turnout — or is it a potent protest against the party?
In the 2022 presidential election, President William Ruto defeated Raila by only 200,000 votes to be declared the fifth president of Kenya. Raila got 6,942,980 against Ruto’s 7,176,141.

Siaya County alone, with a total of 533,595 registered voters, gave Raila 371,092 against Ruto’s 4,320, with 376,354 having voted.
Siaya alone, with 157,241 voters who elected not to vote, could have forced a rerun.

In Kisumu County, with 606,754 registered voters, Raila got 419,997 against Ruto’s 10,011. A total of 431,005 votes were cast, while 175,749 did not vote.

In Migori County, with 469,019 registered voters, Raila got 294,136 votes against Ruto’s 52,525, accounting for 347,773 votes cast, while 121,246 did not vote.

Homa Bay County had 551,071 registered voters, with Raila getting 399,784 votes against Ruto’s 3,497, while a total of 404,112 votes were cast. 146,959 did not vote.

From the above statistics, the four counties had a total of 2,095,863 registered voters, of which 601,195 did not vote—accounting for 28.7 percent.

The question, therefore: Why has there been a significant decline in voters during general elections in the region? Could it be a silent rebellion?

The answer could easily be derived from the just-concluded Ugunja and Kasipul by-elections.

The Ugunja and Kasipul by-elections opened a can of worms on what could have been affecting ODM for ages—flawed and manipulated party primaries.

In Ugunja and Kasipul, there were allegations of flawed nominations, which later reared their ugly head in the by-elections.

For instance, in Ugunja, with 60,114 registered voters, only 15,017 voted, translating to 24.9 percent turnout, while 45,097 voters did not turn out. A powerful statement.

The ODM candidate won with 9,447 votes. In the ODM primaries, the top three candidates shared 9,451 votes, with Moses winning with 5,326. Interestingly, Moses won the by-election with 9,447—a drop of 11 votes from the total garnered by the top three contenders in the party primary—while 5,570 electors voted against the party.

In the Kasipul ODM nomination, a total of 22,727 party members participated in the exercise, which was won by Boyd Were after getting 22,727 votes.

Were won the by-election by garnering 16,819 votes, meaning that along the way the party lost 5,908 loyal members, accounting for 26 percent of those who participated in the nomination. This statistic is extremely telling and worrying.

The voter turnout was 36 percent, accounting for 31,077 voters from the 67,017 registered voters in the constituency.

The joint opposition garnered 14,258 votes, translating to 45.9 percent, against ODM’s 16,819, which translates to 54.1 percent. A worrying trend in the absence of Raila in the 2027 general elections.

The reality remains that a majority of voters did not turn up in the last general election after the party issued direct tickets and denied several aspirants the opportunity to contest. The silent protest cost Raila the presidency.

Recently, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino claimed that ODM would not give him the party ticket to contest for the Nairobi gubernatorial race and preferred the incumbent Johnson Sakaja over him.

This forced the new party leader, Dr. Oburu Odinga, to summon and reassure him that the party would conduct a free and fair election.

But old habits die hard, and with 2027 approaching, the party may revert to old habits and issue direct tickets or manipulate the nomination exercise. Time will tell, as this is likely to lead to protest and rebellion.

Waning influence in Luhya and Kisii counties
Raila turned Luhya and Kisii counties into his strongholds, and ODM was the party of choice. But the recent by-elections and failure to field candidates in parliamentary and civic by-elections left the party colorless in the region.

In Kisii County, Deputy Party Leader of Jubilee Dr. Fred Matiang’i has rattled the vote bloc and threatens ODM’s existence in the region.

UPA, a party associated with him, won the Ekerenyo ward through Jeremiah Ongaro, while Jackson Mogusu of PDP won Nyansiongo ward. The two parties are allied to Matiang’i.

In Kakamega County, ODM failed to field a candidate in Malava constituency and Kisii East ward, while in Bungoma County’s Chwele-Kabuchai ward, it also did not have a candidate.

The emergence of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya in Luhya politics is also rattling ODM and outfoxing it in the region.

Loss of Kariobangi North ward — tip of the iceberg of what awaits the party
Gachagua’s DCP won the Kariobangi North ward through David Warui, while ODM’s candidate came a distant third in what was previously known as their stronghold.

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna is the Nairobi Senator, while Babu wants to be governor, and the duo enjoy massive support in the city. But they never went out of their way to aggressively campaign for the party candidate, which could have contributed to the loss.

The Oburu Odinga and Broad-Based Factor
The decision to confirm Oburu as the party leader has split the party down the middle, with some arguing that Kisumu Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o was still the party leader at the time of transition.

Winnie Odinga recently called for an NDC to elect new officials, while Babu also expressed interest in the seat.

The broad-based arrangement has also split the party, with one wing led by National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Oburu, and Junet Mohammed supporting it, while another wing led by Siaya Governor James Orengo—including Sifuna and Babu—opposes it.

The demise of Raila leaves the party in a precarious position, and if not handled well, it may plunge into the fate that befell Ford-K, founded by Raila’s father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.