By Habil Onyango

Siaya County UDA supporters have warned that President William Ruto risks losing votes in Nyanza should he give in to ODM’s zoning agenda.

Led by acting Siaya County UDA chairman Fredrick Oyugi Dor, embracing ‘zoning’ would not only deny the President votes in Luo Nyanza but also lock out potential and visionary leaders who are keen on bringing reforms that would transform the lives of the residents.

The leaders termed the zoning campaigns as a strategy meant to stifle existing democracy.

“Ring-fencing Nyanza region in favour of ODM is a blow to other parties with potential candidates for 2027. The strategy will be a blow to the President who is seeking re-election in 2027,” said Dor.

“The President should shield his UDA supporters by rejecting the spirit of zoning that is hovering over the Nyanza region before it brings confusion,” he said.

According to Dor, if leaders want to ring-fence Nyanza, then they should do so in favour of President Ruto but not ODM.

“The only role we have as Siaya and entire Nyanza leaders is to see to it that President Ruto’s re-election bid sails through in 2027,” noted the acting chairman.

UDA has been conducting grassroots recruitment across the country, which Dor revealed is a strategy aimed at putting ODM on notice to prepare for fierce competition.

“It is through fierce competition among the parties in the region that will earn the President votes,” he said.

He warned of voter apathy should ODM dominate the Nyanza region.

“People will be reluctant to vote in 2027 because the majority will think that a decision has already been made,” he said.

“Only 200,000 votes denied former Premier Raila Odinga votes in 2022, and yet 700,000 people failed to turn up for the exercise,” said Dor.

The acting chairman added that zoning will lock out young and visionary leaders from posts.

“It’s unfortunate that those spreading zoning messages are old guards who have been recycled for years but have not added any value to people’s lives,” he said.

“Some of the leaders advocating for zoning have outlived their usefulness. They are people who rose to leadership when we were still youths, and up to now, we are grandfathers, but still they want to compete with us,” noted Dor.

He spoke in Siaya during the sensitization of UDA supporters ahead of the Thursday elections.

Daniel Omondi, a UDA supporter from Central Alego, lauded the President for his bid to strengthen his party at the grassroots.

“As UDA Siaya supporters, we want to assure the President that we shall comb villages and mobilise them to support his re-election bid,” he said.

“Let ODM continue to embrace the broad-based government, and they should forget zoning because their schemes will not materialise,” urged Omondi.

Mildred Ochieng, another UDA supporter from Ugunja, said that those championing zoning have sensed defeat and are now panicking, especially now that there is no party leader who will endorse or lift their hands in public.

“The President should not allow ODM to dictate to him,” said Ochieng.

Ugenya MP and MDG party leader rejected zoning, saying it aims at suppressing voter participation and erodes constitutional principles.

“Zoning threatens the foundation of competitive politics by pre-determining electoral outcomes,” he added.

“The moment you start saying this party belongs to this region and another party belongs elsewhere, you are already violating the constitution,” he said.

Ochieng linked zoning to declining voter turnout, citing recent by-elections where participation dropped sharply in areas perceived as politically ‘locked’.

“In some constituencies where competition was effectively absent, turnout fell to as low as 24 per cent. But in areas with real competition, turnout rose to over 45 per cent,” he said.

By Anderson Ojwang

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Nairobi youth convention exposed the Dr Oburu Oginga-led faction of Linda Ground to be running on a panic mode, bankruptcy, and stooping low in the duel with the Linda Mwananchi faction.

In what analysts view as a weak show of might and dry political strategy that casts aspersions on the preparedness of Linda Ground and its ability to fight the Secretary General Edwin Sifuna-led wing, Linda Mwananchi, in the post-Raila Amolo Odinga dispensation.

The convention, which was thought to be purely for ODM registered members, turned into tragicomedy when party National Chairperson Gladys Wanga shocked the audience by calling out the first 10 members to register at the function for a gift package.

Wanga read out the ODM registration number and asked the first 10 members to register to come for a gift package at the podium.

“New members come to the podium. Show us the message. Very good, and that is enough. These are youths who have registered as new ODM members. Dr Oburu said we cannot be without power,” she said.

The move opened a can of worms and raised tough questions about the convention: whether the attendees were actually party members or not.

The real fear factor was confirmed when Wanga called to the podium a group of youths who had allegedly moved to Linda Mwananchi but made a comeback to the Linda Ground fold.

Wanga said there were some youths who switched camps but finally have returned to the fold, and we want to welcome them back.

“These were some youths who lost direction. They lost hope and went out of the political lane. But they have realized the party is ODM, and they are back home. Let’s welcome them back,” she said.

One of the youths, Ben Sirkal, said they were in ODM but got confused and went to the other faction, but have returned to the party.

“Oburu Odinga is our party leader. That other faction has disrespected our party leader. We have resolved to return to the fold, and we will be here until further notice,” they said.

Wanga asked the defecting youths to go and greet Dr Oburu to welcome them back into the party.

While Linda Ground wobbles, Linda Mwananchi is gaining strength with every rally, the latest one being in Nakuru which attracted a mammoth crowd, and they have scheduled their next rally for Kisumu town.

Siaya Governor James Orengo, speaking in Nakuru during the Linda Mwananchi rally, claimed that he had ousted Oburu from the seat for failing to steer the party forward and adequately prepare for the 2027 general election.

“We know the Secretary General of ODM is Edwin Sifuna, and because Oburu is unable, now Orengo is the acting party leader of ODM. Thank you,” he said.

But ODM Director of Elections dismissed Orengo’s claims that he was the acting party leader of ODM as a figment of imagination.

“I have heard Orengo say he is party leader. Which party is that? Dr Oburu Oginga is the party leader of ODM. We are in broad-based government. We cannot leave it. We cannot follow Orengo in demos,” he said.

Junet said when the leader of Ford-K, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, died, Orengo wanted to be the party’s leader.

“Our leader is Oburu Oginga. We know where we are going, and our party is ODM, and we are in broad-based government,” he said.

Restlessness

Linda Ground is currently facing political restlessness over demands by a section of UDA members for open competition while some ODM members want to protect their strongholds.

Last Thursday, the Central Management Committee meeting demanded respect from their partner UDA in a statement.

“On our relationship with our broad-based partners, the UDA party, the CMC noted with concern the goings-on and the unwarranted public utterances by some senior officials aimed at causing anxiety and disquiet among our members. As a party that believes in its principles, ideology and the foundation on which it was founded, we demand respect from the UDA party,” read the statement in parts.

Subsequently, Linda Ground has morphed into Linda Chama and has been sent into a panic and crying mode.

Wanga has come out strongly to protect ODM from infiltration, saying they were ready to walk out of any negotiations.

“Ka ngato omulo chama wa. Kata in ema omiyo wa mo moleny (If someone tries to destroy our party, even if he is the one who gives us ghee). Waweyo ne mo no (We will leave that ghee),” she said.

Wanga said it was time to protect the party from intrusion and to prevent the party from losing its parliamentary strength in the next election.

Reunion

Linda Ground, faced with an emerging political terrain, is finding itself being isolated and losing image in the political duel.

That is why MP Caroli Omondi claimed that Linda Ground had sent feelers that they were ready to engage to reunite the party.

“We are ready to engage with the Oburu faction on condition that it nullifies the recently endorsed party officials. If they are not ready to resign, let them go away,” he said.

Omondi said the Oburu faction must agree to hold a fresh national delegates conference to elect new officials.

Sifuna said the Oburu wing must be ready to denounce any pre-election coalition with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance.

But Oburu has maintained that for better or worse, ODM will only get into a coalition arrangement with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

He said ODM was only interested in a coalition with President William Ruto’s party, UDA, and the party has not been swallowed by UDA.

“We as ODM are not interested in other parties we are not negotiating with. We are only particularly interested in UDA, with whom we are going to negotiate,” he said.

Oburu said he was in a good relationship with President Ruto and asked him to rein in some of his party officials causing disunity in the broad-based arrangement.

“I personally, as Dr Oburu Oginga, am in a good relationship with the President, who is the leader of UDA. He needs to discipline and talk to some of his senior officials in his party. That is all we are saying,” he said.

By Anderson Ojwang

The division in the Orange Democratic Movement could be widening despite attempts to reunite the two factions, Linda Mwananchi and Linda Ground.

Despite the claim by MP Caroli Omondi of an overture from the Dr Oburu Oginga-led faction of Linda Ground for a reunion, last weekend’s events told a different story.

From Dr Oburu’s weekend hard-stance interviews and the Linda Mwananchi rally in Nakuru, where Siaya Governor James Orengo declared that he was now the acting party leader, any possible chance of reunion has been dimmed.

History of Ford-K in replay in ODM

If anything, ODM is replicating the old script of the Ford-K power struggle after the death of its founder, Mzee Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Oburu’s father.

The protagonists in the battle then were acting chairman the late Kijana Wamalwa, Ugenya MP James Orengo, and Ford-K Director of Elections, Raila Amolo Odinga.

Raila, in his first contest for the party vice chairman with Orengo, the then presumed heir apparent, lost the election. It marked the first crack in the party.

Boardroom fights over control ensued between Raila and the Wamalwa-Orengo wing. The Wamalwa-Orengo wing outfoxed Raila from the party leadership and retained the support of the majority of Ford-K MPs.

Outsmarted, after a series of failed reconciliation talks, Raila went to the people and outsmarted Orengo in the control of Nyanza and most of Ford-K’s stronghold politics.

Raila resigned and joined the little-known National Development Party, from where he built his political empire, while Orengo and Wamalwa remained with a limping party.

History is in play, with the script of Ford-K replaying in ODM’s new power struggle and a possible eventual split.

Oburu’s hard tackles on Sifuna

The tiff between the party leader, Dr Oburu, and the embattled Secretary General Edwin Sifuna could be the departure point for any possible reunion of the party.

Sifuna’s description of Oburu as mediocre and that he cannot be his secretary general could have broken the camel’s back, and Oburu over the weekend responded by saying that Sifuna was not a Pope to be pestered by ODM.

“The one problem we have with Sifuna is about indiscipline. You cannot have young people who are indisciplined. He described me as mediocre. He wants to be my Secretary General. How do I work with him? He doesn’t want to follow party channels. He wants to follow his own parallel channels,” he said.

Oburu said Sifuna has disregarded party functions and was running parallel programs aimed at undermining his leadership.

“When the party organized a special delegates conference, he organized a parallel one. He doesn’t come for Central Committee and National Executive Committee meetings. He organizes parallel rallies to the party ones. He is not the Pope. We cannot beg him. We cannot plead with Sifuna to come and be our Pope. We want to show that anybody in the party can be disciplined, including the party leader,” he said.

Leadership takeover

Dr Oburu said the faction has no capacity to take over the party leadership because they lack the instruments.

Orengo, speaking in Nakuru during the Linda Mwananchi rally, claimed that he had ousted Oburu from the seat for failing to steer the party forward and adequately prepare for the 2027 general election.

“We know the Secretary General of ODM is Edwin Sifuna, and because Oburu is unable, now Orengo is the acting party leader of ODM. Thank you,” he said.

Oburu wondered: “How do they take leadership positions when they contradict everything from the policy-making organ?”

Oburu said Sifuna was acting shamelessly by running to court instead of facing the party organs.

“How do you go to court shamelessly? You say the party leader is useless and you have no way of removing him. You do not want to follow the right channel to remove him. What will happen?”

Conditions for engagement

Last Sunday’s Linda Mwananchi rally in Nakuru was a statement in the making to the other faction of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Linda Ground, and other political blocks.

The faction is growing from strength to strength while Linda Ground of the party leader Dr Oburu Oginga wobbles and fumbles in its next political course.

Caroli Omondi claimed that Linda Ground had sent feelers that they were ready to engage to reunite the party.

“We are ready to engage with the Oburu faction on condition that it nullifies the recently endorsed party officials. If they are not ready to resign, let them go away,” he said.

Omondi said the Oburu faction must agree to hold a fresh national delegates conference to elect new officials.

Sifuna said the Oburu wing must be ready to denounce any pre-election coalition with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance.

But Oburu has maintained that for better or worse, ODM will only get into a coalition arrangement with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

He said ODM was only interested in a coalition with President William Ruto’s party, UDA, and the party has not been swallowed by UDA.

“We as ODM are not interested in other parties we are not negotiating with. We are only particularly interested in UDA, with whom we are going to negotiate,” he said.

Oburu said he was in a good relationship with President Ruto and asked him to rein in some of his party officials causing disunity in the broad-based arrangement.

“I personally, as Dr Oburu Oginga, am in a good relationship with the President, who is the leader of UDA. He needs to discipline and talk to some of his senior officials in his party. That is all we are saying,” he said.

The political patterns of Ford-K are replaying in ODM. A truce may be a mirage.